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STEADY AS SHE GOES...

A stagnant weather pattern brought more of the same to much the area Monday with plenty of low clouds (stratus) and areas of fog. With most areas under a healthy snow pack, temperatures while slightly warmer were still on the cool side of climatology.

There is a front that is passing through Monday night with somewhat drier air and that may scare up some sunshine by Tuesday afternoon, but in general this is a forecast full of persistence as the upper air pattern is very blocky and dominated by split flow. That keeps temperatures from getting too warm or cold and it also keeps storms and precipitation at arms length. Essentially what it all means is that what you see is what you get right on into the weekend. Check out this sprawling high pressure that dominates the pattern.

With that big stagnant high situated over the Midwest it's going to be tough to get and meaningful rain or snow. This is what precipitation totals look like through Sunday.


The EURO

The GFS

Snowfall is scant as well. This is a disappointment as a few days ago it appeared the southern branch would be in play further north. Now you need to visit southern Missouri, Tennessee, or even Arkansas to find that type of weather. These are the six day snowfall outlooks through Sunday.


The EURO snowfall

The GFS snowfall

Examining the pattern the next 10 days and beyond, it appears temperatures should be near to above normal with the MJO in the null phase and a negative AO and EPO (cold phases) off-set by a positive EPO (a mild signal). The day 8-15 departures on the EURO weeklies show a tendency for no worse than seasonal temperatures in my area. Unseasonably mild air covers Canada as a strat-warm unfolds up that way.

In the day 15-22 period that changes as colder air begins to build south. I suspect the EURO will be colder in future runs as it has a bias to be warmer than what reality yields.

The weeklies still point to the mid to long range period having the potential to be snowy. That results in a 46 day snowfall forecast that looks like this. I see what the model is basing this on but tracks and intensity of individual storms will play an important role on the ultimate outcome that's impossible to define at this point in time. It certainly is on my radar and worth watching in coming days.

Again, most of the snow and impactful weather is beyond the 10 day period. I admit there is a lot of speculation in the accuracy of data in that time frame but that's what the trends are showing. Meantime, it's steady as she goes. Roll weather...TS

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