STRONG SPRING STORM INCOMING...
After a warm - but windy day - on Sunday we now have changes coming for the week ahead. Monday will be mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds and still a bit breezy. Temperatures will stay mild:
As our spring storm approaches there will be a push of some even warmer air on Tuesday:
We have the warmth and we also have the moisture:
Precipitable water values around 1" will be sufficient for heavy rains in thunderstorms. And of course there will be instability... which will be fairly high in the evening on Tuesday:
CAPE (convective available potential energy) values of 1000-2000 will lead to thunderstorms and strong storms at that. There will also be spin (wind shear) in the atmosphere as a low pressure system moves across the state. That will lead to the potential for damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. As a result the Storm Prediction Center has a slight and enhanced risk in parts of the Midwest for Tuesday:
Storms will develop in western Iowa and continue to the east. The NAM is trying to show a line of storms trekking to the east:
The bigger threat would be with gusty winds if a line sweeps through. If storms remain separate then they could pose more of a hail and tornado threat. There will be the potential for more storms on Wednesday:
The risk of severe weather then extends to the east:
The details of course will continue to become more clear over the next 24-48 hours.