THE GOOD, BAD, AND ALL THE REST...
Sensational weather kicked off the new week with sunny skies, mild temperatures, and a big breeze Monday. It will end up being a hefty portion of the good weather we'll see in the coming seven days. A turn to less desirable weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a wave of energy ripples along a boundary draped over Missouri. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday and while a few spotty showers are possible, the most likely time for them to occur will be Tuesday night. As it stands now, the best potential for meaningful rain will be over my far southern counties closer to the best forcing. A secondary rain band looks to stay just north of my area. Models have been struggling to resolve the placement but the latest trends echo my long standing sentiments that the heavier amounts will remain south of my area. Here's what guidance is suggesting as of late Monday night.
Once this system departs early Wednesday, we get back on the good side of mother nature Thursday with a nice southerly flow sending highs into the low to perhaps mid-80s south. Humidity increases too. The EURO indicates highs like this, back to summer.
Friday a stout cold front arrives in the late morning or early afternoon. That's not optimal timing for showers and storms but at least a few might attend the front. Models aren't showing much if any rain, a trend that's been consistent for several days. Even so, it's too early to write off rain prospects entirely. It will take another day or two to pin that down. With or without rain, it does appear the coming cool-down is just slow enough to allow for another warm day Friday with highs in the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE.
What seems a given is that a much cooler air mass is on the way for the coming weekend. This is where the ugly comes in. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be well below normal. The GFS is especially fresh Saturday when it drives some vorticity into the deepening trough behind Friday's front. That and the cold air aloft will generate enough instability for clouds and potentially showers. Temperatures Saturday afternoon are shown not getting out of the 40s and low 50s in the NW half of my area. The EURO is a notch warmer but not by much with highs only in the 50s. Here's the worst case scenario of the GFS.
If the GFS were to verify those readings would be 20-25 degrees below the norms. For the sake of corn let's hope not!
No matter how you slice it, the 5 day period Saturday to Wednesday of next week looks plenty fresh with temperature departures 10-12 degrees below normal per day. That means 50s and low to mid 60s for highs. Thank goodness it's not January or we would be in the deep freeze. The strong May sunshine will save us this time of year!
If long range trends hold, our weather should warm up significantly by Memorial Weekend with the positive PNA flipping to a negative signal. That creates a west coast trough as a ridge builds over the east. That should bring warm muggy conditions back into the central U.S. The EURO shows this at 500mb May 29th.
PWAT's (precipitable water vapor) could be pushing 2 inches by that time. Can you say sultry?
In the end, we'll be playing ping pong with temperatures going back and forth the next 10 days. I am a bit concerned though that we are getting back into a dry pattern. Despite chances of rain on occasion, it seems like the best forcing or timing is not in sync for my region to get in on the more significant rains. That's not a certainty but a feeling I get looking at the overall pattern, including the growing heat and drought over the central Plains. It could be a really mean summer to our west and I'm afraid some of that could bleed into the Midwest from time to time. Something to watch.
That's a wrap for now. Good, bad, or in between, it's ours to enjoy! Make it a solid day and as always, roll weather...TS