KCRG%20big%20horizontal%20banner_edited.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED...

LIMITED COPIES LEFT:

A SECOND PRINTING OF MY NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...

250 NEW COPIES OF DERECHO 911, IOWA'S INLAND HURRICANE ARE AVAILABLE. Around Christmas we sold the last of the 1500 copies of our book on this historic thunderstorm, the most damaging in U.S. history. Due to continued demand we have ordered a limited number of 250 for those of you interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event. You can get yours at derechobook.com


WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HOISTED

Winter storm warnings have been issued for most of my area north of I-80 Saturday into Sunday afternoon. South of I-80 to roughly HWY 34 winter weather advisories will go into effect.

Confidence is high on the storm but unfortunately precipitation type is going to be an issue to start as a narrow wedge of warm air gets drawn into the SW third of my area. How far north this actually gets before gradually retreating Saturday night will make a significant impact on potential ice and snow accumulations. I have the official NWS snowfall forecast posted below and you can see the thinking that freezing rain or mixed precip. substantially cuts into snow accumulations in the SW half of the area from Waterloo to Cedar Rapids and on past the Quad Cities.

The latest runs of the EURO and hi-res HRRR (very good and typically reliable models) keep that mild wedge more to the south of I-80. There is a short period where ice or a mix is initially found but evaporative cooling quickly changes that to snow and thus accumulations in Iowa are higher on those models. Compare them below.


The EURO

The HRRR

We'll need to monitor the trends closely going forward but amounts could be quite a bit higher than the NWS forecast near and north of a line from Kewanee back to Muscatine and to the SW of Iowa City. Northeast of there the dominate form of precipitation will be snow and 4-8" amounts should be widespread. I'm anxious to see what the new EURO and HRRR show with this trend whey they come out later this evening. Of course I will pass that on in a post around 7:00. That's it for now. Roll weather...TS

ARCHIVED POSTS
RECENT POSTS
© 2020 Terry Swails