FICKLE FEBRUARY STORM...
For several days the major models have been struggling to get a handle on the development of a Midwest storm early next week. There's a complex interaction of energy known as phasing that's causing fits and low confidence in the eventual outcome.
Now that the system is getting better sampled the clustering among models has tightened and the track and intensity is becoming clearer. Both the EURO and GFS now show a surface low cutting across SE Iowa Monday night. You can see the EURO below followed by the GFS.
One of the issues for my local area is moisture. By the time its injected into the system the best forcing is east or north of the region. So despite the strength of the storm its track and limited moisture will make this a meager precipitation producer from here west. The EURO has this for total precip. The heavier amounts are clearly east of the Mississippi.
As has been the case with many storms in recent weeks, cold air is limited and that means the snowy side of the storm will be confined to the upper Midwest, well north of the surface low. The EURO has this for snow.
The GFS looks this way.
As mentioned, temperatures will be relatively mild for much of the storm. However, once the low passes cold air will quickly surge in on the backside. Gusty winds and sharply colder temperatures will take up residence for a couple days. Here's the highs on Wednesday.
Wind chills will have to be reckoned with.
It does look like the cold lifts out quickly as the trough is very progressive. The EURO has temperatures already back in the 40s and 50s over my area with points west and south even warmer by Friday. Here's what it has for highs.
The model may be a bit fast and aggressive but it does not look like the cold will hit and stick.
At least for now, that's where things stand with next weeks storm. Have a great weekend and roll weather...TS