TORNADO THREAT FOR SOME TODAY...
It's February, not a month the Midwest expects to see severe weather in. In fact, the SPC shows the odds of it on February 28 to be non-existent this far north.
However, Tuesday may be a day when the southeast Midwest bucks the trend. Look at the Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook. It's possible that some of the enhanced region could be upgraded to a moderate risk if conditions warrant early Tuesday. The threat includes all facets of severe weather including tornadoes.
I say that because I'm seeing some significant parameters coming into play. Notice temperatures in the 70s nearing the southeast tip of Iowa out ahead of a surface low and cold front.
Along with that, dew points are unusually high into the 60s as far north as Burlington, Iowa. That will generate plenty of instability and CAPE.
The significant tornado index on the NAM is worth noting from central Illinois back into Missouri. In fact, several soundings in that area showed PDS tornado parameters (Paticularly Dangerous). This one came out of central Missouri.
It's always a challenge to get all the ingredients in place to produce tornadoes, especially in late February and certainly this far north. However, there is reason to keep and eye to the sky Tuesday in the area the SPC has highlighted in its outlook.
Otherwise, the rest of the Midwest will see scattered showers and some snow, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Here's the GFS surface map Wednesday at 9:00am. Snow is wrapping back into my area but it is on the light side.
It gets heavier in Wisconsin as the storm gets better organized and heads towards Michigan. Here's the GFS snowfall forecast.
Wednesday and Thursday will be sharply colder around the Midwest as the system turns winds in from the north. I expect a couple of days in the 30s around my local area. It won't last long however as southerly winds get cranking by the weekend allowing highs to surge once again around the Midwest.
So you have snow, thunderstorms, severe weather potential, warmth. cold, and wind all within 24 hours. Looks like spring is in full swing around the Midwest to me! Roll weather...TS