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The late night model runs confirm the fact that a winter storm is getting set to move on the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. Winter storm watches are out for parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin but have not been extended further east. The NWS says that's not warranted due to the long duration of the storm. So even though parts of my area (and other parts of Wisconsin and Illinois) could see up to 8" of snow, no watches or advisories are out for the time being. Like it or not, that's the policy.

Anyway, the models are now in pretty agreement that the surface reflection will travel over Iowa towards or just south of Keokuk, Iowa Monday morning. The heaviest snow will fall about 150 miles northeast of the track.

The Weather Prediction Center has these odds for at least an inch of snow.

Here are the latest snowfall forecasts as of 5:00am

The GFS:

A tighter view of my area.

The EURO regional and tight:

The NAM:

Newer runs later today should firm up the track. It's important to keep in mind there is still some wiggle room for the system to move north or south. However, the clustering is tight and I'm not expecting any dramatic shifts. However, if you are on the north or south end of the snow band a minor shift could have significant implications. I'll be back with an update this afternoon following the arrival of the EURO. Until then roll weather...TS

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