DIFFERENT DAY, SAME OLD WEATHER...
After a miserable weekend at my place, one that featured two days of forties and .70" of an inch of rain, I'm ready for spring to return. Despite the raw weekend, March temperatures remain near to above normal over many parts of the Midwest.
However, the past two weeks have not been especially nice with departures that look like this.
Precipitation also showed an increase the past week as an active southwest flow aloft aimed storms at the central Midwest. That trend remains intact so in general more cool wet weather is on the table the next 6-10 days.
In this 16 day GFS animation of the 500mb jet stream flow you can see the energy of the various storms drop into the southwest and eject toward the central U.S.
The GFS surface reflection (with precipitation included) is shown for the same time period in this animation.
The storms are lined up like trains on a track. The shear volume of activity will mean above normal precipitation over many parts of the central and southern Midwest. The GEFS ensemble mean has this for total precipitation over the 16 day period.
The EURO EPS ensemble mean has this for 15 day precip. totals.
While the snow season is rapidly coming to a close, if things come together right wet snow can still cause short term problems. Both the GFS and EURO ensembles are showing some snow over the upper Midwest. Most of this (if it even happens) comes after the 7 day period. Here they are.
All things considered, the active pattern know as spring is in position to keep us busy right on into April. Roll weather...TS