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40's FRIDAY, A SIGN OF A BAD WINTER AHEAD?

Well well, what happened to summer? Many of you are asking that after morning lows that dipped into the upper 40s and low 50s this morning.

The low here in Cedar Rapids was 49 which just missed the record of 47 set in 1978. By the way that went on to be a wicked winter, especially January of '79 when lots of records were set for snow and cold in my local area.

So, the question many of you are asking me is does the early chill mean this is going to be a bad winter? Is there any correlation to 1978-79? So far none of the long range outlooks I've seen are pointing that direction. If anything, just the opposite!

Take a look at what the CFSv2 has in mind for winter (the months of December-February). This is painful for a snow lover like me! Here's the models temperature outlook.

Now the precipitation forecast.

OMG! It doesn't get much worse on paper than that. Warm and dry for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.

The latest seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is not as dire but far from good if you like a rip roaring winter. Here's what CPC is showing for temperatures.

CPC has this for precipitation.

Personally I am concerned where the 2 models are trending but I need to see more data before I get on the bus. Two things that I will pay close attention to in the next 30-60 days is the evolution of sea surface temperatures and enso conditions.

The latest enso forecasts have remained consistent indicating a weak to neutral El Nino this winter. You can see below the dynamic and statistical averages of the various models are roughly +0.4. Last winter was more than +2.00.

With no major El Nino or La Nina to influence large scale patterns, that alone argues for more of an average winter temperature-wise than the blow torch the CFSv2 is showing. Of course there are other considerations that will come into play such as SST's in other parts of the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Until I have more facts to base a conclusion on I will sit tight on the fence. Just thought I would show you what some of the early, early forecasts are showing. Roll weather...TS

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© 2020 Terry Swails