CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR....

A low pressure system will bring active weather to the Midwest this weekend. Precipitation begins late Friday night and will continue on an occasional basis through Sunday. A wintry mix is expected at first across NW Iowa, Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin with rain further south. As colder air moves in during the day Saturday the wintry mix will change to all snow over the NW half of Iowa and continue Saturday night into Sunday morning . During the transition from rain to snow light icing will be possible Friday night before a period of moderate to heavy snow Saturday through Sunday morning. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for those areas where significant wintry precipitation is expected.

The NWS in Des Moines has issued these forecasts for snow, ice, and rain accumulations.

Here's some snow and ice forecasts from the NWS La Crosse, Wisconsin

The 72 hour probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow.

For the majority of my area, especially SE of a line from Ames to Waterloo and to the north of Madison, this will primarily be a rain event. It't not out of the question that a few thunderstorms could be found in the south later Friday night. Melting snow, and locally heavy rainfall could produce some areas of ponding and minor flooding due to frozen ground and restricted run-off. Some rises on smaller rivers and streams are likely. Areas of dense fog could also be a detriment to travel starting Friday night.

The latest run of the EURO shows this for total precipitation Thursday night. Some big numbers by December standards,

Here's the EURO snowfall forecast.

A larger perspective.

Following the weekend wetness colder and drier air settles in for the first half of next week. Once again, it's close but no cigar when it comes to snow for my area. Maybe next time. Roll weather...TS.