SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
The active pattern continues as we start a new week across the central part of the country. Thunderstorms, some strong, along with heavy rain will continue on and off through the week.
It will start Monday morning with the first round of showers and thunderstorms.
There will be a break in the late morning and early afternoon. It will be a summer-like Memorial Day across the Upper Midwest... here's a look at the high temperatures Monday:
The humidity will be high, which means there will be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Here's the dew points:
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible where a warm front sets up Monday afternoon:
Some storms on Monday could be strong... with strong winds and hail being the main concerns. The tornado risk is overall low, but not zero. Here's the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
That same front will be stalled out through Tuesday and lead to another round of strong thunderstorms on Tuesday. The severe weather is even higher on Tuesday because there will likely be more instability and stronger wind shear, particularly across Iowa. The risk for tornadoes will be higher on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Here's a look at the outlook from the SPC for Tuesday:
Right now the tornado threat looks highest near the Iowa/Nebraska border and into western Iowa. As the storms form into a line, there will be a bigger threat for strong winds and large hail into eastern Iowa. We'll have to watch for how the day progresses.
Heavy rain remains a concern as well, with high moisture levels in place. Just take a look at the forecast for rainfall across Iowa through Tuesday night from the National Weather Service:
Flash flooding and rises on rivers/creeks will continue to be a concern. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days...