A PATTERN IN FLUX...
The next few days promise to be good ones from a weather standpoint. High pressure is descending southward out of Canada where it will perch over the Great Lakes the next 3 days. Before it's fully established, Wednesday promises to be a summery day with temperatures soaring into the mid 80s along with ample humidity. An isolated storm is a possibility during peak heating but they look to be widely scattered in nature..
Thursday-Saturday is expected to by seasonal and dry thanks to east/southeast winds around the Great Lakes high pressure.
Precipitable water vapor really takes a hit going from 1.25" Tuesday down to .65" on Friday
That's near to below what's typical as you can see in the anomalies below.
The next weather maker arrives Saturday night or Sunday in the form of a digging trough. Here it is Sunday morning on the EURO EPS ensemble.
That should scoop enough moisture back into the area for scattered showers and storms the second half of the weekend. Amounts are not likely to be excessive. Early indications are in the 1/2" to 1" range. By Monday that disturbance is gone and the Midwest goes into NW flow.
Moisture is really vacated in that type of set-up. Precipitable water is 20-35 percent of normal!
Cooler air is also drawn into the Midwest over the long range period. Here's the day 5-10 temperature departures.
Days 10-15 look like this.
No signs of any heat after today. I suspect that's a trend that will be common much of the summer. Roll weather...TS