DOG DAY REVIVAL...
Make no mistake about it, our recent run of cool temperatures has just about run its course. Here's the August temperature departures to date. I like that party!!
But, get a load of what's ahead in the extended. These are the 5 day temperature departures for Aug 23-28th. Many places are 8-10 degrees above normal. It looks like a dog day revival.
This resembles the result you would expect with the MJO taking a slow ride through phase 1. Below you can see the August temperature and precipitation analogs for phase 1 in the month of August.
Here's the projected swing through phase 1 the next 7-8 days. (follow the dotted green lines).
The EURO and GFS are actually in pretty good agreement with the coming heat peaking Monday-Thursday of next week in the 90-95 degree range.
This is the NBM blend of major models and it looks reliable to me.
Overall there is excellent agreement that the pattern will remain dry in my area through the weekend. These are rain totals on the EURO through Monday morning.
You may have noticed in the precipitation analog of the MJO in phase 1 that it tends to be wet over the central US. While the next 7 days are relatively dry, the EURO does bring some rain to validate that analog towards the end of the period. We will see about that, I have my doubts on how much and how widespread.
With that, I call it a day and wish you all a terrific weekend ahead. You won't need the coat! Roll weather...TS