A BREAK FOR NOW

While not record-breaking locally, July and August have been well on the higher end of the climatology in terms of total precipitation across the corn belt with repeated waves of severe weather and heavy rainfall. Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois are well into the top 25 years on record (since 1893) with some portions of the Chicagoland region in the top five all time.

Farther east across Indiana and Ohio this stretch did in fact break records for total precipitation.

What I want to point out though it to the north, how dry it's been. Feast or famine tends to be the way it works in the world of weather the last several years, and we are seeing that to the north in North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Portions of Wisconsin in fact are in the bottom five years on record.

This is having some interesting implications on rivers across the region. Despite the immense amount of rainfall across our area, the Mississippi River from about Dubuque and to the north is actually running low for this time of year due to the very dry conditions not that far away. Meanwhile, notice all the blue and black dots across Illinois and southeast Iowa - here rivers are well above normal if not in record territory for this time of year. The Mississippi River is flowing strong from St. Louis and points south due to all this runoff.

Out west, the Missouri River is near all-time lows for this time of year. This may have implications on barge traffic heading into the autumn harvest and could impact operations across the northern Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. We actually need quite a bit rain up there while locally we could use a bit of a break.

In the short term, we actually are experiencing some dry and comfortable weather for most of this upcoming week, but I am closely watching next weekend for a return to mroe active weather. Analogs in fact are highlighting the northern Mississippi headwaters region for the highest chances of above-normal rainfall which would be ideal given everything I explained above.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING

The only weather concern in the short term is scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. This may produce some small hail but overall organized severe weather with this activity is unlikely given a lack of moisture and instability. Heavy rain also isn't of much concern here.

SATURDAY

The European Ensemble, which has been my weapon of choice as of late for mid-range forecasts (you've seen me use it quite a bit in the last few weeks and I think it's been exceptional) is starting to highlight the region for shower and storm chances starting Saturday. Given some stronger upper-level support severe weather is a watch item, but not a super strong signal at this point.

SUNDAY

Sunday the signal is present as well, albeit not as strong, for more showers and storms across our area. Next weekend it certainly looking like a bit on the wetter side, but at least most of this upcoming work week will be quite beautiful with low humidity and seasonal temperatures.

The next 10 days are looking pretty nice! Wamest appears to be Wednesday with that afformentioned storm system, otherwise low-80s look to be the theme headed into September.

Have a great rest of the weekend!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart