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Tuesday may have been a different day than Monday, but the results were the same, with highs in the 90s and a nice big helping of humidity. One positive factor was a hot wind out of the southwest that at least kept the air moving. A small consolation.

Going forward, some changes will be in effect thanks to a front which will do its best to cut into the ridge centered over the east. Progress will be limited and confined mainly to the area NW of the Quad Cities, where showers and storms are possible, along with significant cloud cover. That's likely to put a dent in temperatures in that area, with highs cresting in the upper 70s to low 80s. Further SE, highs are likely to again be in the upper 80s to near 90, hottest in the far south. Additionally, some late day storms are possible along the front, which should turn stationary near the Quad Cities bisecting the heart of my area. Storms appear to be hit-and-miss in nature, with some locations missing them altogether. As a result, rain totals could vary significantly. Some spots where storms fire, especially NW of the Quad Cities, could see some heavy downpours of an inch or more, especially NW of the Quad Cities, but in general amounts should be more on the light side, especially from the Quad Cities SE. It will be another muggy day. Here's what models are showing for rain totals through Wednesday night.



The 3k NAM


With far less forcing, Thursday and Friday rain chances are small and tied to any outflow boundaries or the position of the front, which is already inching north of the region. Highs Thursday will range from the mid to upper 80s north to around 90 south. Readings should climb a few more degrees Friday, upping the range from 90 north to 95 south. Fortunately, mixing looks to prevail, which should keep humidity levels moderate with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Still, a very toasty day!


The weekend starts out smoking with a hot, humid air mass directly over the region. Highs Saturday should again hit 90-95 ahead of a ridge crushing short wave, You can see it here at 500mb centered over the upper Midwest.

What you can't see is a cold front streaking across Iowa late in the day. Ahead of it, deep tropical moisture is pooling, with water vapor shown exceeding 2 inches. That could get dew points into the low 70s towards evening, creating a nice little backyard sauna.

With ample heat and humidity, the atmosphere will be ripe for thunderstorms. The question is will the front generate the necessary forcing to trigger widespread storms when it arrives later Saturday evening? The set-up looks prime for some strong storms, but there is evidence a cap may be in place that keeps the bulk of the activity just north of the region. I'm not convinced that will be the case, and I will carry at least a moderate chance of thunderstorms Saturday night. Mesocale details unknown at this distance will ultimately tell the tale.

Whatever happens, the front clears my southern counties early Sunday and a switch to brisk NW winds will usher somewhat cooler but significantly drier air into the region. Most highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, but by evening dew points go from the low 70s to the mid 50s...far less humidity. A fine way to close out the weekend.

Much of next week, the 500mb flow is shown to be zonal (a west to east storm track). The positioning of the jet should be close or slightly north of my area. That matters because we would be located near the northern boundary of the heat and humidity. That may spare us from the worst heat, but the trade-off would be storms that result from differential heating. It's possible it could be a warm but active week if we reside close to the MCS track. It certainly looks like a typical mid to late June set-up. Time will tell.

Over the next 15 days, the GFS shows up to 12.57" of rain in WC Wisconsin. Most of the Midwest is wet.

These are the rainfall anomalies for the same period, as high as 10 inches. That would be problematic for some.

I guess that is where I will pull the plug on this particular post. Thanks for checking in and roll weather...TS


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1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?


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