A CHILLY START TO MAY

Following an active April we have a quiet and cooler pattern taking over for the next week. Frost and even freeze potential is looming later this week with lows in the 30s likely by Wednesday and Thursday. Certainly not record-breaking cold, but quite unusual! Above Wednesday morning lows in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois are projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thursday morning looks to be the coldest period in the short term with widespread lows in the mid/upper 30s likely. Frost potential is certainly there, especially in low-lying areas as high pressure builds overhead with clearing skies and calming wind.

The Weather Prediction Center has outlined areas just to the north, for now, at risk of frost/freeze Tuesday through Friday. I think this can drop a little more south into our area based on the current forecasts. The coldest period is likely, again, Wednesday and Thursday. This will certainly give us a nice stretch to dry out and get the fields planted.

According to the latest crop report by the USDA the corn plant in Iowa is running 10% behind last year, and the soybean crop is 11% behind last year. This is likely in response to the very wet soils we have across the state. The soil moisture in the state of Iowa are in the 70-80% percentile, however with some dry time ahead a transition to more normal levels is likely.

The first 10-14 days of May will be under the influence of strong northwest flow aloft bringing in the drier and cooler air. This will keep the pattern quiet, and dry, in the short term. However, notice the ridging building off to the west along the Pacific Coast. This will likely propagate eastward by the second half of May ushering a warmer and more active pattern with time.

By the middle of May temperatures are projected to move towards more normal levels as the pattern slowly transitions to this warmer flow. Analogs are hinting at this quite well, seen above. We'll see what happens as late May gets closer into ensemble range. It's nice to not have to talk about severe weather!

Have a great rest of the weekend!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart