A CLOUDY ISSUE...
Friday we had a situation where a pocket of cold air aloft brought two different brands of weather to the area. Near and east of the Mississippi under the influence of the cold pocket, instability stratus was prevalent and so were clouds, Without the sunshine, highs here were limited to the 60s. Further west, the instability was neutralized and with bright blue skies, highs were well into the 70s. A tale of two types of weather. Defining where the cloud line is positioned and whether it moves or not, makes for a difficult forecast.
Here's a closer look at the western extent of the cloud shield at 2:00pm.
The location of that cloud line made a 10-12 degree difference in temperatures at mid-afternoon Friday.
It also made the difference between above normal temperatures west to below normal readings in the east.
Even without precipitation and a well organized storm, forecasting can be quite challenging and at times frustrating. No matter how small the details, there's always something to ponder, which I like.
Clouds will not be an issue Saturday as the pattern begins to move and evolve into what looks to be an unsettled phase later Sunday into Tuesday of next week. Saturday should be a sensational day with highs areawide in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday, clouds will be back on the increase as our next weather maker enters the picture. With dry air still in place, any showers should hold off until Sunday night although a few sprinkles can't be ruled out in the far northwest by evening. Depending on the amount of cloud cover, there should be enough sunshine for highs to bounce back into the upper 70s to near 80.
Things get a bit more complicated Sunday night and Monday as a trough digs into the region. It drags a cold front across the region that provides the forcing for showers and perhaps a few thundershowers. CAPE is minimal so the thunderstorm potential is low. Models have been vacillating widely with rainfall totals the past 48 hours with the latest runs back to showing some decent rainfall potential. The window for rain with the frontal passage is Sunday night in the north and mainly Monday morning in the south. That is contingent on the speed of the front remaining consistent.
After this round of forcing departs, a closed upper air low develops over the upper Midwest Monday night that only creeps into the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold pocket aloft associated with the circulation will provide instability and lift during that period. While they are not likely to be heavy, scattered showers with plenty of clouds are on the menu. The north is most vulnerable to see any of these lighter showers. Temperatures will also be held down as a result and could remain in the 60s across the north Tuesday and areawide Wednesday. Here's what the EURO indicates for highs next Wednesday...looking fall-like for sure.
Readings like that are a good 8-11 degrees below what's normal.
As I indicated, rainfall totals have been bouncing around the past couple days but have come up in in the latest model runs. Hopefully we can squeeze a bit more out of the set-up in future runs. As it stands now, the south stands the best chance of getting anything beneficial. The EURO indicates this for rainfall for the two periods of lift Sunday night through Wednesday. We'll take all of that we can get.
The GFS is not so robust but at least has rains that would do more than settle the dust.
Taking things a step further, modeling is indicating the pattern aloft remains in a west to northwest flow that is not conducive to moisture and storminess of consequence. As a result, the EURO ensembles out to September 23rd continue to indicate significantly below normal rainfall over the central United States. Nothing new there.
With that I am off to the upper Peninsula of Michigan where I hope to get some much needed rest and relaxation. Hopefully the fish are biting, but if not, that's the way it goes... Since there is no internet where I'm headed, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart will assume the duties of the site until I return next week. Until then, roll weather...TS
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