A DRY, MILD START TO OCTOBER

After one of the wettest periods on record across the Midwest, we are taking a very nice break from the rain machine and turning quite dry heading through the first portion of October. Strong ridging aloft is bringing a northwest flow of dry air overhead and alloowing warmth to build in. Ensemble guidance early next week (above) shows some very strong anomalies - indicating temperatures 7-10 degrees above normal next weekend.

The upper level pattern shows the strong ridging over the US. This dry air from the Pacific Northwest moves in and really shuts down any real weather pattern. This pattern also continues to allow the Eastern Pacific to go wild with hurricanes.

Precipitation departure from normal is solidly dry for our area. Meanwhile, down along the Gulf coast, torrential rain and flooding is very likely. During an already dry time of the year, this is about as dry of a signal that you can get.

Normal for October in the Quad Cities is about 2.81" - we are well on our way towards what is typically the driest period of the year. It will be difficult to get meaningful rain through at least about October 12. There is a subtle look for rain late this week (Thursday night/Friday morning) with a passing front, but not expecting too much with this.

In terms of temperatures we have a pretty mild stretch coming for this time of year. In my opinion, it does not get much better than this with lows primarily in the 50s and highs in the low 70s. There is a little bit of a warm up early next week coinciding with our next storm system potential around Oct. 12. There is a much cooler signal begind that, but that's getting pretty far down the road to have a lot of confidence.

If you have work to do outside and you need to avoid the rain, we are seeing some potential rain in the region around next Monday, October 12. That's a solid week between now and then with limited rain and warming temperatures.

Happy October, friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart