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A LEAVE OF ABSENCE...

So far, the sizzle of summer has spared us. Those hot searing days have been few and far between and the weather pattern ahead of us promises to keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Up to now, only 12 days have reached 90 in the Quad Cities with the hottest being 93 June 24th.

The numbers are even more impressive in my northern counties where 90 degree highs have been almost non-existent. In Dubuque for example, only one day has reached that milestone and it was a struggle with June 22nd barely squeaking out a 90.

Looking at the latest meteogram for the Quad Cities, there is no indication of highs reaching 90 before July 26th.

Here's the average daily temperature departures for the next 10 days. No indications of serious heat occurring within that period.

However, around July 24th the NW flow that keeps us heat free is shown breaking down. If that happens it will open the door for some of the heat that's bake the west to make a run at the Midwest. Just how much and for how long is still to be determined but that's the trend in Monday's modeling. Here's the 500mb jet stream flow the GFS shows July 24th.

Below are the GFS temperature departures July 26th. I suspect these are way overdone.

The EURO shows some heat around July 25 but breaks it down pretty quickly with the upper air pattern reverting back to the NW flow that's prevailed the past 8-10 weeks. That would end any heat quickly and is a solution that seems more likely to me. As a result, I'm being very cautious about jumping on any sort of prolonged heat wave wagon.


Between now and then, we are removed from the primary storm track and aside from an outside chance of shower or storm on a cold front Wednesday night, rain looks pretty scarce through the coming weekend and potentially into next week. Here's what the GFS and EURO are indicating for rain totals into Sunday.


The EURO

The GFS

I guess the big take away is that the next 5 days will be mighty fine ones for mid-July. Limited humidity and slightly below normal temperatures will dominate the picture. Highs should generally be in range of 80-85 (aside from slightly warmer readings Wednesday). We'll take it! Roll weather...TS


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