A ONE HIT WONDER...
- 13 hours ago
- 4 min read
OPTIMISM FOR THE FUTURE
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A ONE HIT WONDER...
Goodness gracious, did we have ourselves a day Friday. It was a blue chipper with sunshine and highs 30 degrees above normal. Macomb in the far south reached 75 degrees! That's the average high for May 21st, nearly 3 months from now. Highs of 70 or above were found from the Quad Cities south. My northern counties were confined to the mid to upper 60s, nothing to sneeze at.
If you take a close look at the plot of highs, you can really see the impacts snow cover had on temperatures. Where a foot or more of snow fell a week ago in NC and NE Iowa, some highs remainded only in the mid 40s. The reflective nature of the snow does not allow the suns radiation to be absorbed by the ground and thus, readings were 20 degrees colder than they would have been without the snow. The snow pack shows up nicely on the afternoon satellite image.
One of the reasons temperatures were as warm as they were was the incredibly dry air that was in place. Centerville, in SC Iowa had a humidity around 2:15pm of 11 percent. I might have seen 9 percent once but honestly, that's about as low as you are going to get it around here. To achieve that level of humidity, the temperature was 73 with a dew point of 16. The larger the temperature dew point spread, the lower the relative humidity.
Saturday RH levels will again be low in the south thanks to a cold front that passes overnight. SE Iowa and WC Illinois will be in the 28-35 percent range. However, from HWY 20 north they dramatically jump above 80 percent as moisture pools ahead of an upper air disturbance that wrings it out in the form of some afternoon snow.
My northern counties may see a dusting up near HWY 20. However, the best dynamics and lift is found just far enough north to keep a 1-3 inch snow band just out of my area. The EURO and GFS indicate this for snow potential Saturday afternoon and early evening.
The EURO
The GFS
By the way, Saturday will be a much colder day, by as much as 30 degrees, My northern counties will be the beneficiary of the coldest air with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. The south closer to the stalled out front should have a shot at mid to upper 40s, especially form Burlington south.
Sunday looks quiet, but cold with highs remaining in the low to mid 30s with some filtered periods of sun. As I mentioned in my previous post, Sunday night, which for several days looked to have some snow potential is now mainly dry. The GFS caught this drier less snowy trend a few days ago and beat the EURO like a mule. Had it have been the other way around, I would have gotten onto the drier trend sooner having so much faith in the EURO winning these types of battles. I don't know if changes have been made to the GFS, but something has gotten into it. Or, perhaps something has changed in a bad way on the EURO. Anyway, here's what guidance now shows for snow Sunday night. Again, we are left high and dry. It's like we have a fortress around us. Really amazing.
The GFS...pretty similar to 24 hours ago.
The EURO, way further south! 24 hours ago it had a 1-3 inches of snow from at least I-80 south.
Systems are coming fast and furious now and the next one is on track to arrive Monday night (or even later) Tuesday into Wednesday depending on your model of choice. For now, the EURO is earliest and most progressive. That produces less precipitation, in this case rain. It show this for amounts.
The GFS is more amplified producing a longer period of over-running along a nearly stationary front. It really cranks out some significant rains. I am skeptical of the amounts and placement with moisture a question in my mind this far north. I think its well overdone. Despite saying that, the GFS has been good lately so we'll see where trends take us tomorrow. It sure would be nice to see that much needed rain though.
Taking the active pattern a step further, this is the GFS ensemble mean rainfall output for the next next 15 days.
Well above normal precipitation departures are shows from the Mississippi into the Ohio Valley. Fingers crossed.
The EURO ensemble for the same period is further southeast by about 150 miles. That's not much but it makes a significant difference in the amount of rain that ends up falling. Either way, the idea of a very active storm track close by is very much on the table.
By the way, after a chilly period the next few days, readings are shown warming up as a ridge builds over the east allowing storms to track further west. Here's the 2 week meteograms of the EURO and GFS through the 14th of March.
The EURO
The GFS
If we can push those temperatures up there around 65 to 70 again, with the SW trough, some thunderstorms are even a possibility somewhere in that period. Well, enjoy the last day of February, the madness of March shows signs of rearing its mischevious head. Roll weather...TS. ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 95% to my goal.
