A TROPICAL FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE

Now that we have a break from the relentless rain over the last week, we have some time to look longer range as some rather interesting weather patterns taking shape by late September and early October. Hurricane Polo has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean and we are continuing to see signals of a rather large conveyor belt of moisture headed our way. Above, European Ensemble precipitation anomalies are pushing 200-400% of normal rainfall from Mexico, through the High Plains and aiming at the Upper Midwest.

There appears to be two waves of moisture - some initial content pushed in from the Eastern Pacific as a ridge builds back across the central US and a second push more directly tied to the Hurricane. We are already seeing signals of moisture content of the atmosphere Monday/Tuesday of next week in the 90th-percentile. It's rather rare to see this strong of a signal at this range.

What does this mean? Compared to this time of year we are looking at very high moisture content of the atmosphere. If this gets funneled our way we could be looking at rounds of heavy rain right around the end of the month which could become problematic for the harvest.

The deterministic Euro shows the large slug of moisture pushing from Baja California to the Midwest. Now, of note, if a well-timed cold front arrives just ahead of this moisture, it could keep it to the south. That would be ideal as we really don't need a lot more rain in our area. That front, however, could open the door to severe weather potential, so pick your poison I suppose.

We are starting to see isignals of this potential in some of the official, long-range, forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. Their Day 8-14 rainfall forecast added a very large "leaning above" normal precipitation chance for the central US. I think this becomes a bigger story in the days ahead as confidence increases one way or the other.

So bottom line - we are watching tropical-induced moisture that could warrant more heavy rainfall in the region approximately Sept. 29 through October 3. A well-timed cold front could sweep the moisture away, or allow it to pool in our region leading to heavy rainfall.

Most ensemble guidance for now is leaning towards the heavy rain threat.

In the short term, cool temperatures will stick around the next couple of days before that ridging takes over next week bringing in warmer temepratures, as well as the afformentioned rain risk. Wednesday looks absolutely steller personally across the area with plenty of sun and highs in the upper 60s.

Have a great week!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart