A TYPICAL JULY DAY...
Wednesday was just a typical July day around the Midwest with highs more typical of July than April. Some parts of NW Iowa soared into the 90s for the first time in 2023. Sioux City peaked at 92. Dubuque tied its record high for the date of 82 degrees set in 1941.
Currently normal highs are in the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs Wednesday of 82-83 as I mentioned are more of what you would expect the first week of July. Just a little perspective on how lofty readings were.
Here's a larger look at late day readings around the Midwest Wednesday.
Notice the warmest readings are aligned from NW Iowa into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. That's where temperatures at 850mb (5,000 ft.) were warmest up 22C. In mid summer that will get you well into the 90s with a dry air mass like we saw today with relative humidity values under 25%.
At 500mb you can see the 500mb ridge over the central U.S. supporting the warmth.
You can also readily observe how subsidence (sinking air) exists below the ridge by the absence of clouds. Very quiet conditions all around the central U.S. That disturbance down near the Gulf is also blocking moisture from entering the pattern.
PWAT's (precipitable water vapor) were well below normal over much of North America.
Just look at how limited precipitation was throughout North America Wednesday evening.
The warmth, breezy conditions, and low humidity levels from the lack of moisture (combined dried vegetation from winter), has created a high risk for wild fires. A red flag warning has been issued by the NWS and remains in effect for outside burning Thursday. Don't do it!
ONE HOT DEAL... 3 NIGHTS FOR THE PRICE OF 2 MEMORIAL WEEKEND IN GALENA
THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH AWAITS YOU
Get the gang together. Kick off summer with a free night at the church, one of the most unique stays in the Midwest. Call Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or email carolynswettstone@yahoo.com CLICK HERE
2 MORE DAYS OF SUMMERY WEATHER...
The next 2 days look for little change as we remain under the dominance of the 500mb ridge. That means sunshine and summery conditions continue. Here's the point forecast for the Quad Cities. Temperatures go from 82 Thursday, to 78 Friday. Humidity remains low and precipitation chances are non-existent. A few more clouds are possible Friday.
Late Friday night and especially later Saturday shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that slowly approaches from the west. By then a plume of moisture could raise dew point close to 60 and with temperatures again in the 70s, there should be some CAPE/instability for the front to work on.
That implies the possibility of some active but scattered late day thunderstorms in advance of the front. For now the severe threat appears minimal. Some of the stronger updrafts could put out some localized downpours. The mesoscale details will get ironed out in the next 48 hours and will be tied to the timing of the cold front.
Eventually the front does bull its way through and windy colder weather surges into the area Saturday night. Some post frontal showers are likely that could be scattered around into Sunday . Some snow showers could mix in with the rain late Saturday and Sunday in the north. This aspect of the weekend is still up for grabs and remains intriguing but very uncertain due to marginal thermal parameters. Temperatures won't go up much Sunday potentially staying in the upper 30s far north to the low to mid 40s elsewhere with strong cold air advection and windy conditions. It's Bye bye summer for a few days.
Here's what models are indicating for precipitation totals this weekend.
The EURO
The GFS
After a chilly start to next week, we should see some moderation ahead of the next system due in towards the mid to late week period. Models are not in good sink on the evolution of the pattern at that time so I'll leave it at that for now. Enjoy another one of those "July" days today. How sweet it is. Roll weather...TS
A MESSAGE: Voluntary donations from people like you support the content, infrastructure, and operational cost of this site. Your contribution however small, makes a big difference. Please consider a donation, and thanks to the 416 of you who have answered the call. It is greatly appreciated. Just click the banner to make a voluntary donation. TS
