SOON TO COME, THE STORMS....
We have had some beautiful, warm weather this weekend, with plenty of 70s and 80s! Now a storm system is on the way to bring some spring-like storms.
Monday will mainly be dry with temperatures back in the 70s and near 80:
Storms will move into western Iowa Monday evening and some could be strong:
Hail will be the primary threat, with some gusty winds possible. The higher tornado threat will be well to the west Monday night. Storms will continue to advancing east and will likely weaken as they approach eastern Iowa, but some may contain gusty winds and small hail into early Tuesday morning, especially south of I-80 in Iowa:
Storms should diminish a bit in the late morning and early afternoon Tuesday, which would allow for the atmosphere to recharge and destabilize later in the day. The question then is if clearing occurs, how unstable will it get. Some models are more robust than others with the energy available, but shear appears to be plentiful, which means the potential is there for rotating storms known as supercells. This is the type of storm that can produce tornadoes. Bulk shear below is significant and indicative of the veering winds at the surface compared to those aloft Tuesday afternoon.
Sometimes strong shear can make up for marginal amounts of instability and take over. This leads to an elevated threat for large hail and tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening over portions of southern Iowa, WC Illinois, and Missouri. SPC now indicates an enhanced risk (level 3) of severe storms SW of a line From Cedar Rapids to the Quad Cities and on to the east of Galesburg.
The 3k NAM shows one line of storms departing the NE late Tuesday afternoon with another broken line of broken thunderstorms with supercell potential redeveloping and approaching from the west.
If storms remain separated, they would pose more of a tornado threat. If it's a solid line, they would be more of a wind threat, especially as they head to the east later in the night. This is very much dependent on timing and mesoscale details yet to be determined.
Another cold front will push through Wednesday and temperatures will cool down for a few days...
Stay tuned for updates on the severe weather threat!
Rebecca Kopelman
TERRY'S 5-STAR AIRBNB, WHERE VACATIONS ARE HEAVENLY (MAKE IT YOURS)
