ANOTHER WHIFF...
We're not in what you would call a drought yet, but this is the way you get there. Last Friday, it appeared much of the area was in a situation where a good widespread soaking rain was in order. Models were in strong agreement and the stage was set. At the last moment, just like with Charlie Brown, the ball was pulled before the kick and for many it was a whiff. At least for now, we are struggling to get our fair share of rain.
That said, a final wave of energy has passed through Illinois, producing some scattered showers and isolated storms over the far southeast overnight. What's left is out early in that region Tuesday, with clouds thinning and clearing from NW to SE as the day wears on.
Here's where the bulk of the rain fell over the weekend. Some areas in NE Iowa into SW Wisconsin had 2–4 inches plus. Far southern Iowa and WC Illinois also got in on some decent amounts, along with a small area along I-88, from just NE of the Quad Cities to Rockford. The rest of us were left with empty hands. Close but no cigar.
Cedar Rapids is one of the areas that's really been in a slump, with Tuesday being the 25th consecutive day with no measurable rain.
If things trend the way they are looking on model guidance, the earliest chance at anything measurable in Cedar Rapids would not be until late Saturday night or Sunday. That means the streak has a good chance of reaching 30 days, which is a real feat. As of last Thursday, about 99% of my area was classified in abnormally dry conditions.
Compare that to August 6th when virtually all of Iowa and Illinois was sufficiently wet.
Soil moisture anomalies for the period August 31-September 22nd, are 40-70% of normal with the greatest departures in EC Iowa.
These are the rainfall departures indicated on the GFS through October 9th.
NOAA'S outlook for October shows little optimism for a wetter pattern, with much of the central U.S. having near to below normal prospects for precipitation.
The next opportunity for any worthwhile rain is actually tied to a tropical system which is fast on its way to becoming hurricane Helene. Spaghetti plots indicate the storm makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle, perhaps as a category 2 hurricane. From there it runs into an upper level block and gets absorbed by an upper air low over the mid-Mississippi River Valley. That should turn the remnants west towards the region Saturday and Sunday. How strong the forcing remains and where it tracks will determine how much rain (if any) can find its way into the central Midwest.
Ensemble means of the GEFS, actually indicate a loop in the energy. That highlights the strength of the blocking over the Great Lakes. That could be a problem, feeding dry air and subsidence in from the north.
The GFS through Sunday shows some rain of consequence southeast of the Quad Cities as moisture wraps around the weakening circulation. However, the block to the north is feeding enough dry air into my northern counties to keep rainfall minimal north of I-80. This is all very preliminary and confidence remains low regarding the impacts of any rain locally. Clearly, the southeast is most favored at this time. Stand by.
The EURO rain totals for the same period.
Meantime, some exceptional weather looks to be with us the remainder of the week. Dew points remain low and mostly sunny skies will prevail much of the week after any clouds depart later Tuesday. That results in cool nights and pleasantly warm days, with high pressure in firm control. If it's going to be dry, it may as well be nice! Have an exceptional day and roll weather....TS
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