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CALLING ALL RAINDROPS...

The new drought monitor is out and as expected dry conditions have expanded across the Midwest, even in areas where some rain fell. The call is out for raindrops, which are urgently needed in many areas. Here's the latest data from the Drought Mitigation Center. Massive parts of the cornbelt are now experiencing a "flash drought".

The big take away is that as of today 85 percent of the Midwest is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. Three months ago that number was 19.6 percent. Just last week it was as low as 66 percent. Moderate drought now impacts 32 percent of the Midwest, up from 9.5 percent 3 months ago.

Since last October parts of Scott, Muscatine, Cedar, and Des Moines counties in SE Iowa have accumulated rainfall deficits of 5-7 inches.

Negative soil anomalies of 70-100 percent were noted across my area as of June 7th.

The dryness is ranked in the top 5-10 percent over much of SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

Adding to the problem are warm temperatures which over the past week averaged 3-5 degrees above normal.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE UP...

For several days I've been focused on a system that is projected to dig into the Midwest from the NW (much like a winter clipper). A surface low develops over northern Missouri and then curls NE into Illinois and NW Indiana. Models are struggling a bit with the exact track and the placement of the heaviest rain. However, they are all in good agreement that a swath of beneficial rain (1/2 to 1.00 inch plus) is likely in some part of the area Saturday afternoon or evening into Sunday morning. It may be another 24 hours before amounts fully resolved. A few showers could redevelop Monday in the cold pocket aloft that forms in the wrap-around behind the surface low. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals.


The EURO

The GFS

The NAM

The National Model Blend

The Weather Prediction Center output.

However this pans out, temperatures will turn cooler as the upper air energy closes off and pinwheels over the Great Lakes. E/NW winds will rotate clouds and cool air into the picture. Saturday looks cooler than yesterday with highs mid to upper 70s north to low 80s south. Sunday and Monday highs in the upper 60s NE to mid 70s SW are looking more and more likely. The 70s could linger into Tuesday before warmer air takes over mid-week.


After that models are trying to build heat over the southern Plains but have backed away from much of that reaching the Midwest. What does comes out arrives late in the week ahead of our next disturbance. The northern edge of the warmth will be an area to watch for active thunderstorms. Whether or not that involves the central Midwest remains to be seen. The long range runs of the EURO and GFS both came in with some generous rainfall totals. I will show them but most of this comes around day 10 or later. That means the numbers are backloaded and at that distance are not nearly as reliable as in the day 1-5 period. Hopefully the trend of wet weather is correct but I have low confidence that amounts will be anything as appreciable as shown. With that and for what it's worth here's the 15 day rain totals off the EURO and GFS.


The EURO (very unlikely)

The GFS (more reasonable but still probably too high on totals).

The Climate Prediction Center indicates average rainfall in the 8-14 day period which does not sync with what modeling is indicating. However, if average is all we get I would take it in a heartbeat. Calling all raindrops! Roll weather...TS


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