CHANGE OF SEASONS...
Fall is officially still a couple weeks away but I definitely got the feeling Wednesday that its knocking lightly on the door. Thanks to a frontal passage, a brisk NW wind, and thick canopy of clouds, readings remained in the upper 60s to low 70s much of the day. In some parts of the Midwest, afternoon temperatures were as much as 25 degrees cooler than just 24 hours earlier.
The Satellite late Wednesday showed the wrap around clouds associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes. The cold front running from Michigan into Indiana was responsible for some beneficial rain in my far northern counties Tuesday night.
Below you can see the Doppler rainfall estimates from the showers and storms that developed near and north of HWY 20. Here in Dubuque we had our first measurable rain in 21 days.
Unfortunately, much of the rest of my area was not as fortunate and Thursday will be the 24th consecutive day with no measurable rain in the Quad Cities (going all the way back to August 15th).
If the GFS has its way, there will be no rain in the Quad Cities through September 16th. Here's the 10 day rainfall totals indicated on the GFS.
The EURO is far more aggressive with a system Sunday night and Monday delivering rain where the GFS is depicting little if any. I suspect the EURO is overdone but the mesoscale details behind the event are yet to be determined. Confidence is low in regards to what happens regarding rain next Monday.
These are the 16 day rainfall departures on the GFS continuing to show a very quiet dry pattern over the central Midwest the next 2 weeks.
The developing NW flow aloft will also ensure that no heat waves are in our immediate future. The EURO has 7 day temperature departures that are near to slightly below normal over most of the central U.S.
The EURO meteogram depicts temperatures that look like this in the Quad Cities the next 10 days. That's certainly doable.
The coming 2 months are typically mellow ones here in the Midwest as cold air builds at northern latitudes. With the days being noticeably shorter and the sun less direct, temperatures slowly begin to decline but in general this is a stable time of year. Cooler nights and mild days are staples to be counted on. That's pretty much where the pattern seems to be heading and as such, we have some fine weather to look forward to after Thursday. Today we may struggle to get rid of the stratus, especially in the NE half of my area so that is the weather issue we face. For now, I'm going with clouds to start and a gradual decrease in them during the afternoon. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s where sun makes an appearance to perhaps upper 60s where it is slow to develop.
After that we are into mostly sunny skies Friday through Sunday with low humidity and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Our next rain chance appears to be Monday. Not a great set-up but at least a small opportunity exists. Have a solid day and roll weather...TS
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