CLIMBING OUT OF THE HOLE...
Make no mistake about it, we've been in a black hole this week. All of springs good weather has been sucked out of the Midwest leaving us in a dark, dreary place. Friday's snow was the capper, (the straw that broke the camels back). Finally, that's behind us and there's some light in our future as our storm spins away and we climb out of this unwelcome hole.
In the satellite below you can see the stacked upper low and its pocket of cold air generating Friday's snow showers. You can also see the sun emerging over central Iowa and that's the brighter brand of weather we'll enjoy Saturday.
This radar captured Friday afternoon shows the snow showers that danced through our cloud filled skies.
As you can see below, this is the 7th consecutive day with measurable precipitation in the Quad Cities. Just part of an active period of weather that's produced rain or snow 15 of the last 22 days.
The wet weather streak comes to a temporary end this weekend as we get sandwiched in-between storm systems. With the return of the strong April sunshine temperatures should respond accordingly and highs Saturday will reach 50 to 55. Sunday, brisk southerly winds return and readings make a significant jump soaring into the 60-65 degree range, perhaps a little higher than that. Big improvement to be sure.
A NEW WEEK, ANOTHER STORM
Forecasting challenges begin anew next week as a fresh storm emerges out of this energetic weather pattern. In the 500mb animation you can see this weeks storm departing and the new one wrapping up and taking its place. Another deep fully stacked bowling ball circulation. A fascinating look at the transition of energy
The next animation shows the explosive development of the surface low and its precipitation shield Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This storm will have all the elements with a full fledged blizzard in the northern Plains and a severe weather threat in the warm sector.
There are multiple forecast challenges associated with this system much of which are tied the position of a warm front Monday and Tuesday. I've been talking about this issue for a a couple days with the GFS and EURO at odds as to where it sets up. Not only will it dictate temperatures, it will have big implications on where and when showers and thunderstorms move back into the picture.
Over the past 24 hours the EURO and GFS have more or less come to a middle ground solution with the EURO further south and the GFS a bit further north. That drives the front far enough south to keep precipitation out of the picture Monday. However, as the front creeps north Tuesday showers and storms should enter the picture where they will remain a threat through Wednesday. Of the two models, the EURO is significantly wetter (however, not as wet as 24 hours ago). Here's what each are showing for total rainfall Monday through Wednesday.
With the warm front south of the area Monday and perhaps part of Tuesday, that will make temperatures tough to forecast, especially Tuesday when the front advances northward. That day highs could range from the mid 50s far north to the low to mid 70s south (a 15-20 degree difference). The range is virtually impossible to predict at this distance. Monday though should see readings around 60 and Wednesday, everybody has a strong chance of being in the 70s when we are fully in the warm sector. Then the storms cold front passes and much below normal air surges back into the Midwest for the end of next week. However, we should see a 4 day stretch where most of us enjoy above normal readings. Here's what the EURO ensemble meteogram indicates for temperatures in the Quad Cities Saturday through Thursday morning before the cold air returns.
Well, that's all I have for now. Enjoy the better weather that will be with us this weekend. We've certainly earned it. Roll weather...TS