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After several days of outstanding summer weather, the stage is set for some active conditions that includes shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps again later Friday. As is usually the case with mid-summer convection, the storm clusters tend to be scattered. Nice rain producers where they occur but little more than teasers in in the spots they work around. It's a bit like dodgeball. maybe you get hit, maybe you don't. Whatever the case, everybody is in the game to start and a few days from now, we'll see who the big winner is. My guess it its the far south which has had more than its share of soakers the past couple of weeks.

The game has begun in the north where some widely scattered thunderstorms dotted the landscape overnight. They formed along a cold front which will slowly settles into my central and southern counties Tuesday where it stalls and waits for better dynamics and more widespread rains later Tuesday into Wednesday. The big question is where do the heavier rains end up falling?

The answer lies in the position of the front. At this point it appears what's left of any over night convection (which may not be much) fizzles early Tuesday leaving some debris clouds to overcome, especially in the north. There may be enough of a cold pool from the decaying storms for an outflow boundary to pop some additional storms near the diffuse front during the day. However, prospects look low until later Tuesday night.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday is the time frame to watch for what could be a significant rainfall event in some part of the central Midwest that resides on the northern fringes of a heat dome just to the south. The front that dips into the region Tuesday is expected to turn stationary west to east just south of I-80. Deep moisture pools across the southern third of my region with water vapor soundings well over 2 inches in spots. That's a red flag.

Toss in a strong short wave and a 50kt jet max that ripples along the front and the gun is loaded for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates and training potential. Additionally a potent low level jet and strong warm air advection creates the type of set up that can deliver a band of 2-4 inch rains with the ability to produce flash flooding, primarily across far southern Iowa and WC Illinois where 4-6 inches of rain has fallen in the last 7-10 days. While hard to say precisely how the set-up evolves, 2 mesoscale convective systems (MCS) could impact the region, one Tuesday night and another Wednesday night. WPC has a slight risk outlook for excessive rain for parts of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Needless to say, there are some key ingredients favoring a heavy rain event but until we see the precise layout of the parameters later Tuesday we can't pinpoint or guarantee it will happen. However, it sure looks good on paper over the far south near and south of HWY 34.

Severe weather is certainly possible as well but most likely would be found across the south and confined mainly to strong winds. Heavy rain is definitely the primary concern. SPC shows this for severe weather risks Tuesday and Wednesday.

Following this event, high pressure should begin to exert itself as it builds south towards the Great Lakes. Northwest flow will gain amplitude. The challenge then becomes how close we are to the mean storm track/baroclinic boundary. If the high is strong enough it may force the majority of the heavier rain threat south of the region over the weekend into early next week. Even so, there should be enough forcing in the cyclonic flow for periodic chances of rain but nothing I currently see with widespread or heavy potential after Friday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with the 5 day temperature departures on the GFS looking like this Wednesday-Monday.

That's where we stand for now. Let's play dodgeball! Roll weather...TS



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