DROUGHT REACHES SEVERE LIMITS
The first drought monitor of "summer" is out and significant degradation in soil conditions has occurred from last week. Now 92 percent of the Midwest is in abnormally dry conditions with nearly 60 percent in moderate drought and 16 percent in severe drought. Extreme drought has crept into SE Iowa and NE Missouri.
Over the past 30 days rainfall in my region has been 10-25 percent of normal.
Specifically, here's a look at rainfall as a percent of average since May 15th.
Significant soil moisture anomalies are widespread across the Midwest.
Many areas were in the lowest 5 percent of soil moisture rankings on June 23rd
64 percent of the nations corn production is within an area experiencing drought.
Notice how 3 weeks ago about 80 percent of the corn crop in Iowa was in good to excellent condition. That is now down to approximately 57 percent.
Roughly 57 percent of soybeans are within an area experiencing drought.
The bean crop has experienced a similar condition drop as corn the past 3 weeks.
I found this to be interesting. In the Quad Cities only 8 hourly observations this June have noted thunderstorms. Typically the number should be about 3 times that at 23.2 hours
In Dubuque, only 4 hourly observations in June indicated thunderstorms, well below the norm of 13.6.
SO, WHAT ABOUT WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES?
Thursday did bring renewed optimism regarding rainfall potential Saturday night and Sunday, especially in my northern and western counties. The EURO is the most bullish of all models. This is tied to recent initialization of a short wave that's deeper and more amplified. That allows it to take a track further south Saturday night into Sunday increasing rainfall potential. I'm still hesitant to get overly confident in widespread rains so I'm employing a cautiously optimistic approach until it happens.
Our hopes for any rain are contingent on convection developing in western Iowa late Saturday afternoon. A narrow axis of moisture combined with daytime heating should be enough to generate significant instability out that way. Hopefully, the cold front will provide the forcing necessary to break the cap with 850 temperatures (5,000 ft.) of 21-23 C. If so, storms will likely develop rapidly and attempt to grow upscale, potentially into a complex moving east-southeast. As the storms cross central Iowa and enter the eastern third of the state they will encounter less instability and drier air. That should cause them to weaken. The question is how soon does that happen and can anything that survives produce appreciable rain outside of my western and northern counties? The situation is somewhat similar to what happened last weekend when some nice rains fell in central and parts of eastern Iowa before the storms fizzled and died as they approached the Mississippi River. In any case, I see some positives but there are some negatives to overcome as well, a big one being the negative feedback of dry air enhanced by drought.
Another twist which seems more probable by early summer standards is the need for moisture and vorticity which may provide instability showers and a few storms Sunday and Monday afternoon. The north is most favored closer to the upper air energy. These will be spotty and brief but could drop 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of rain where they track. All told, here is what the models are suggesting for potential rain totals through Monday.
The EURO
The GFS
The 12K NAM
The 3K NAM
The Canadian GEM
SPC even indicates a severe weather threat over the western half of Iowa late Saturday. Something we've not seen much of in recent times.
As for temperatures, they will continue robust until Sunday. Highs Friday will be back in the low 90s with mid 90s expected Saturday. The EURO even paints some highs of 97 to 98 in the south. Take a look.
Behind Saturday nights system cooler air invades the region with clouds and some scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s north to mid 80s south are anticipated Sunday.
In many spots that makes temperatures 15-20 degrees cooler than just 24 hours earlier.
I'm still seeing a potential ring of fire set-up late next week which could promote additional thunderstorm chances. We'll take what we can get. Roll weather...TS
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