ENOUGH ALREADY

That rip-roaring storm that's impacted the Midwest for the better part of 4 days is winding down but not before producing rain, snow, a major drop in temperatures and lots of wind. In fact, the system was a wind machine, as evidenced by the isobars that were tightly packed over the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday. Isobars (in black) are lines of equal pressure. The more there are, the tighter the pressure gradient, and the stronger the winds!

These are the peak wind gusts reported by the NWS in the Quad Cities Tuesday. Iowa City maxed out at 55mph at 2:00pm. 58 mph is the level necessary for a severe thunderstorm warning to be issued. Of course, in this case, there were no thunderstorms, just straight line gradient driven winds. For a number of places, this was the 4th consecutive day with winds greater than 40 mph. Quite the storm in that respect.

On this satellite image, you can see the center over western Michigan swirling moisture and chilly air southward on its western flank. What you can't see is snow falling over eastern Wisconsin and NE Illinois

Look what my area just missed out on. Several inches of heavy wet snow. Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, picked up 6.2 inches and Madison tallied 2.5.

Below, you can see 48 hour snow accumulations from the event. More will fall over parts of the NE the next 24–36 hours where winter storm warnings are in effect.

EXPLORE OUR NEW WEBSITE & HOLIDAY DEALS AT OUR GALENA AIRBNB

Santa's secret destination to relax after his big night!

CALMING DOWN FOR A TIME

Here in the Midwest, things will calm down heading into the weekend. The Great Lakes storm presses east, allowing the pressure gradient and winds to gradually ease. However, the process will take some time and gusts of 20-30 are still on the table Friday. Temperatures remain cool but with the aid of additional sunshine should poke into the low to mid 40s.

Saturday ridging envelopes the region, allowing partly cloudy skies and dry conditions to hold through Sunday. Highs Saturday remain seasonal in the 40s. Ahead of our next punch of cooler air, warm air advection kicks on Sunday. Depending on the amount of sunshine, highs may surge into the 50s in most areas. Some places in the far south may even approach 60. Winds look much lighter Saturday before kicking up some Sunday.

Next week is of course Turkey week, meaning lots of people will be traveling about. One of the key elements early in the week is a renewed push of colder air that drops temperatures. Highs go from 40-45 Monday to 37-42 Tuesday, and possibly as cold as 33-38 Wednesday. There is going to be a baroclinic boundary laying out to the south of us, which is likely to represent a storm track for any energy that ripples along it. However, at this time, I don't see much in the way of precipitation along it through the holiday. Where things could get interesting is Thanksgiving weekend. Both the EURO and GFS are attempting to show some northern stream energy digging into the Plains, where it may interact with energy trying to eject from the SW in the southern stream.

There's a whole host of solutions hinted at with wide-ranging implications for our sensible weather. The big issue with modeling is the amount of phasing and what it may or may not do to form at least a light snow producing system next weekend. A large amount of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential energy, and it may take a couple more days before we see a more unified solution. Stand by.

Whatever the energy does and where it goes, once it passes the central U.S., the door is open for significantly colder air to end November and start December, something I alluded to in my last post. The GFS is really aggressive with the cold showing temperature departures as much as 30 degrees below normal December 2nd.

It shows sub-zero lows the morning of December 3rd.

Wind chills of course are just flat out ugly.

Considering we are still uncertain about the phasing necessary to bring this kind of cold, I'm not ready to buy into this completely, especially not knowing if snow cover will be in play. However, the EURO does depict cold air overwhelming the pattern at that time as well. Its departures look like this going into December 1st.

Again, details are very much in flux, but it appears to me the idea of some impactful cold certainly has merit in just over a week. Most definitely, this will become a forecast focus in the days to come.

That's where I'll leave it for now. Happy Friday y'all and roll weather...TS