ENOUGH IS ENOUGH...REALLY
Monday afternoon I was peering out the window at slate grey skies. The trees, void of leaves were rocking rocking in rhythm thanks to a 45 mph gale. Wind chills were in the 20s and I thought to myself, man I'm sick of this crap. That's of course coming after snow fell in much of the Midwest Easter afternoon and evening. Just look at the amounts reported by way of the Iowa Mesonet. Up to 2 inches accumulated in my southern counties with 4.2 just southeast of Des Moines.
While there were clouds in my northern and eastern counties early Monday morning, Sunday's snow was still evident on the high resolution GOES satellite from NW Iowa into NE Missouri and pockets of SE Iowa.
Around the time of the satellite imagery, wind chills were hovering in the 20s in my area with teens showing up just to the northwest.
To make my point about enough is enough, you can see that in Cedar Rapids 13 out of April's 18 days have not gotten out of the 40s. A normal high now in Cedar Rapids is 61 degrees! Here's the temperature Departures for April so far. My area is running a good 5-7 degrees below normal per day. Ugh...
Cool will continue to "rule" for a couple more days. Tuesday looks dry (actually a decent but crisp day) with highs upper 40s to low 50s. Things start sunny but clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon as our next rain maker takes shape to the west. Raindrops arrive Wednesday and with showers and a heavy overcast prevailing, highs are not likely to rise out of the low to mid 50s. The system appears to have enough forcing and moisture to produce light to moderate precipitation. Here's what models are indicating for potential rain totals.
The EURO
The GFS
Following the mid-week system, the pattern remains energetic and fast moving. After a break for pleasant weather Thursday, showers and thunderstorms return to the area Thursday night and Friday as a strong warm front approaches from the south. Finally, this helps turn the tide towards warmer temperatures allowing a spring like air mass access to the Midwest for a few days. Highs should approach 65 to 70 on Thursday. The warm front also becomes the focus for active showers and storms along its leading edge late Thursday night and early Friday. A few strong storms are also a threat, although they are likely to be elevated. The primary threats are hail and heavy downpours.
How far north the warm front advances will be critical to how warm temperatures can get Friday. The EURO and GFS are at odds as to where it ends up. The EURO allows it to reach I-80. The GFS doesn't even get it past the Missouri border. That generates a significant temperature differential with the EURO much warmer than the GFS Friday afternoon. Here's the two solutions. I'm uncertain which model prevails and I prefer a compromise solution for now.
The EURO
The GFS
Saturday, as the primary storm deepens and amplifies in South Dakota, my entire area enters the warm sector. With dew points around 60 and highs 75 to 80, instability will be present. While a shower or thunderstorm is possible the best forcing remains to the west during the day. As a result, much of Saturday should be dry with better chances for storms along the advancing cold front Saturday night. Again, depending on timing, a few strong storms are at least a possibility for some Saturday night.
Sunday the front sweeps through early taking any showers and storms out of the area by mid-day. However, temperatures begin to cool once again with highs returning to the upper 50s to low 60s before sinking into the 50s Monday. With Wednesday's rain and what falls Thursday night through Sunday night, this could be a wet period. Here's what the EURO and GFS indicate for total precipitation Wednesday through Sunday.
The EURO
The GFS
Once again, there's a little bit of everything in the forecast the next week except for the mention of snow. Hopefully, we've put that behind us for many months to come. Roll weather...TS
