FALL-ING TEMPERATURES...
The winds of change are blowing across the Midwest today. Tip your hat and say goodbye to that summery feel that was in the air Wednesday. Not only will you need the jacket Thursday, an umbrella will come in handy as well. Time to pay the piper, as the saying goes!
The culprit in this caper is a 500mb upper air low that is spinning slowly through northern Iowa after departing South Dakota.
Additionally, a surface low is lifting into Indiana with an inverted trough extending NW toward the upper air energy. This has turned winds to the NE drawing cooler air into the region. On top of that, moisture and lift are focused along the trough creating showers, which at times were accompanied by thunderstorms in a few spots overnight. With the upper air circulation overhead, instability remains in place Thursday, leading to a continuation of scattered showers. With low clouds, rain cooled air and NE winds, much cooler temperatures are expected with readings stuck in the upper 50s to low 60s. At noon Thursday, readings on the 3k NAM are shown about 25 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier.
Looking ahead, Friday's showers should exhibit less coverage than Thursdays. They also are more likely in the afternoon and evening across the north. That should allow temperatures to warm a few degrees, pushing highs into the range of 60-65, still chilly for mid-May.
As far as precipitation from this system goes, the best overall forcing for heavier amounts seems to be focused along the inverted trough, which extends in an arc from NW to SE through my area. With that in the region, occasional showers and a few thundershowers could linger through Friday night. The rain is looking rather hit-and-miss, driven by passing vorticity and, to some degree, heating in the afternoon and evening. That said, localized spots may see up to 2 inches where forcing is maximized, with far lighter amounts where it isn't. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall totals through Friday night. This does not include what may have already fallen through midnight Wednesday.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3K NAM
The HRRR
Saturday, the whole system begins to break down and depart, leaving us with a drier forecast, Mother's Day weekend. More on that part of the weather story below. Meantime, here's a summer offer worth looking into.
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MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND
I'm happy to report, that dry weather returns for the daytime hours of Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain somewhat cool Saturday, around 65-70. However, with mostly sunny skies, it should be a pleasant day.
Mother's Day, we pull out all the stops for good old mom. Sunny skies and W/SW winds will pump highs into the mid to upper 70s. There is a slight chance of a shower or storm towards evening, but the bulk of the day appears outstanding.
Later Monday and early Tuesday, rain chances look to increase once again as another upper air low closes off over the Midwest. This funky pattern seems to have found a home.
With that, I leave you to enjoy what should be a cool and at times wet day. Let's get it behind us. I'm ready for summer! Roll weather...TS
