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GETTING BACK TO SUMMER...

A rather strong low pressure by late June standards not only brought rain to much of the area this past weekend, but refreshingly cool air as well. After 5 days in the 90s, highs in the Quad Cities the past 2 days remained in the upper 70s. The .69 inches of rain measured at the NWS office in Davenport was more than fell in the previous 46 days (.53 inches).

These are the weekend rain totals around Iowa and Illinois. While the northern 2/3rds of my area picked up beneficial amounts, the far south was not so lucky.

These are the rain totals from around the Midwest Saturday night and early Sunday.

The track of the storm through the upper Midwest into SE Canada was just close enough to involve my northern counties in the rain shield.

Late Monday the 500mb low was crossing into Ontario. You can see the tight circulation reflective of the systems energy.

The NW flow behind the bowling ball is what's brought the change in temperatures. Readings Monday were a good 5-7 degrees below the seasonal norms.

Tuesday the further progression of the storm into Canada will allow more of a southeasterly flow to develop and that combined with additional sunshine sunshine (with some smoke/haze from forest fires) will allow a warming trend to commence. Highs will get back into the low to mid 80s. From there they climb into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and the upper 80s to near 90 Thursday...back to summer. Of more importance will be the return of moisture. Late this week dew points are likely to be up around 70 which will finally bring some of that good old fashioned muggy June weather to the area (good for the crops)!


The prominent message is that the ring of fire pattern I expected to develop a week ago appears to be taking shape. A heat dome (high pressure ridge) of significant proportions gets established over the south-central U.S. We reside just north of the intense 100 degree heat. The periphery of the heat is where the short wave storm track resides. It's still a bit early to see the mesoscale details of ridge riding disturbances but typically storm clusters form at night as the low level jet intensifies after sunset. These MCS complexes, thanks to the fuel of heat and moisture can produce active thunderstorms with the potential to produce both significant rains and severe weather. After forming at night they generally decay early the next day before the next round fires later that night. Hopefully we can get a couple set ups to impact us with some soaking rains.


The first chance at some showers or storms comes Wednesday as warm air advection finally kicks in. I don't look for much from this episode as any storms should be in a decaying state but chances should increase increase Thursday-Saturday as the ring of fire reaches its peak intensity. Below you can see the intense heat in Missouri "the fire aspect of the pattern" Friday. Within the heat the air is capped thwarting storm development. However, from southern Iowa north, the nocturnal jet is in play providing the lift to break the cap allowing for storm clusters from Nebraska to the Great Lakes.

Currently, early indications are that my southern counties are in the best position to get in on the most active part of this pattern and its rain potential. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals late week into Sunday.


The EURO

The GFS

The NBM-national blend of models

The Weather Prediction Center outlook.

That's the picture we are looking at going forward. It has more rain making potential than in previous weeks but critical aspects still need to be resolved. Hopefully it produces fruit. Roll weather...TS


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