GROOVIN'....

Every once in awhile the weather just gets in a groove and cranks out a stretch of spectacular days...you dig? That's the peace train we've been riding this entire month and then some. Much of my area is on a 10-day run without measurable rain, with at least three more days to go. That's what I call groovin'. Here's what's fallen the past 7 days around the central Midwest.

Despite this dry stretch, precipitation continues to be above normal for much of the area this year. At the NWS office in Davenport, Iowa nearly 30 inches of rain has fallen. That's a couple inches above average and far above the lowest total of 12.23 inches at this point in 2005.

After a cool weekend, readings are on the way up, with highs headed into the mid to upper 80s the next couple of days. Below, you can see the tongue of warm air that was already sending highs in SW Iowa close to 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

It continues to look as if well above normal temperatures have a good chance of prevailing much of this month. The 30-day temperature departures on the EURO weeklies are shown significantly above normal for much of North America through October 9th, particularly at higher latitudes.

This is what the EURO is pointing to for temperatures the next 10 days in the Quad Cities. Nothing worse than a high of 79 with a couple of days around the 20th in the 90s. I'm not buying into that type of heat yet, but for now it's on the table.

The 6-10 day outlook from NOAA shows the high likelihood of warmth here in the central United States. The area is showing signs of getting closer to moisture from the mean trough centered over the west. With time, this may improve rainfall prospects later next week.

Speaking of rain, a tropical system destined to become a hurricane Wednesday appears to take a track close enough to at least generate some rain chances, especially later Saturday and Sunday. Before (or if) that happens, clouds become more of a factor late week. Here's hurricane Francine just east of the Texas coast Tuesday evening.

This GOES east image shows the large cloud and rain canopy hugging the coastal areas of the Gulf. That is the moisture and energy that should at least bring a chance of scattered showers to the Midwest at some time this weekend.

As you can see, the storm (now a hurricane) makes landfall not far from New Orleans Wednesday afternoon. Once out of the Gulf, the storm weakens rapidly, with its remnants downgraded to a weak depression when they arrive in southern Illinois Saturday.

Models show little surface reflection by then, and the GFS has really backed off on rain totals in my area, showing little if any, and that idea has merit. It appears to me that the primary rain and forcing from Francine itself will bypass this area to the southeast. However, its moisture may combine with SW flow aloft to create a narrow band of convergence in some part of central Iowa that may be close enough to spit out some rains that sneak into eastern Iowa. The EURO is very much in this camp, with notably higher rainfall potential. Based on recent trends, my gut tells me the majority of the rain stays southeast or west of my local region through Tuesday of next week. While confidence is currently low, I'm hoping to have a clearer position on the outcome later Wednesday. Beyond that, the western trough may progress far enough east to provide a better chance of rain locally the latter part of next week. More on that tomorrow. Meantime, here's what models are suggesting for rainfall Saturday through next Tuesday. Note the big difference between the EURO and GFS regarding amounts.

The EURO

The GFS

At any rate, the next couple of days look straight forward with warm temperatures, some as much as 10 degrees above normal. Dry weather will continue its dominance. Still groovin'. Roll weather...TS

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ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

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