HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN...
After a couple of down days weatherwise, happy days are here again. Not only will be get a chance to dry out, we'll initiate another warming trend that could get us close to 70 again next week.
Before we dig into that topic, here's the rain that fell around the Midwest the past 7 days (most of this came during the period Sunday-Tuesday.
Much of my area picked up 1/2 to 1 inch of welcome rain with some localized spots seeing amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches. Even with those generous amounts, much of EC Iowa and NW Illinois remain quite dry. Below is a standardized precipitation index drought classification change chart. A red classification means degradation the past 7 days (D1, D2) while a green rating means improvement (D1,D2). Most of the positive changes are indicated in a band from central into a narrow portion of the northeast Iowa.
As you can see, even with the recent rain, precipitation for October is only 25-50 percent of normal.
These are the accumulated departures going back to September 1st. Much of my NW counties still have deficits of 3-5 inches during that period. Far SE Iowa and WC Illinois are the only places with positive departures.
Over the next 7 days, the pattern continues to look quiet with little if any precipitation through next Wednesday. If we do see any, it would likely be a few light showers Sunday confined to my counties in extreme SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Most models don't even show that. Here's what guidance is suggesting through Wednesday November 2nd.
The national model blend
The overall dryness supports 7 day departures that approximate this.
Temperatures start out seasonally cool the next 2 days but slowly increase and it is possible highs could reach into the 70s in spots the middle of next week. The EURO, my preferred solution has a 10 day meteogram that looks like this.
The GFS may be a bit warm but I sure like the look its depicting.
The national blend of models is the coolest and most likely underdone. The EURO is a nice compromise and that is the reason I support it.
The long range is a bit mystifying to me as the week 2 temperature anomalies on the EURO indicate well above normal readings over the central U.S.
However, the EURO MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) shows a phase 7 reflection which in November analogs to well below normal temperatures. My take is either the MJO forecast is wrong or the operational model has not caught onto the trend yet. The reason I watch the MJO is for its ability to see pattern changes before models detect them.
Another big driver to watch is the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). By November 8th, it's projected to turn severely negative which would favor a west coast ridge and deep trough over the central or eastern U.S. That would bring the type of cold the MJO is depicting to fruition.
The bottom line is the teleconnections on the EURO that drive the pattern (MJO and EPO) say on thing, and the operational model says another. It will be interesting to see how this is resolved in coming days. My guess would be colder somewhere around November 5th but I can't say that with high confidence. Time will tell.
With that I will call it a wrap for now. Make it a strong day and roll weather...TS