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HERE SHE COMES AGAIN...

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HERE SHE COMES AGAIN...

As I suspected in my last post, all-time record February warmth was achieved in many parts of my area. The final numbers in from the NWS show Moline, Dubuque, and Cedar Rapids all setting lofty monthly records. Burlington was the only spot not reaching number one, but still managed their third-warmest, earning the bronze medal. For the month, Cedar Rapids came in with a daily temperature departure of 12.9 degrees per day.

Not only was it warm, it was a super dry and relatively snow free month. Cedar Rapids had just 1/10th of an inch of precipitation and had its 5th driest February, Burlington did even better, experiencing its driest February ever with a total of .11 of an inch. Most of my area had just 5 to 20 percent of its normal February precipitation.


Snowfall in Dubuque was nothing more than a trace, which of course was a record for the least snowy February. For the month, Dubuque's snowfall was 10.6 inches below normal.

Most of my area from HWY 34 north had an inch or less of snow.


HERE SHE COMES AGAIN

Going forward, temperatures are set to soar once again, thanks in large part to a negative PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation).

The PNA is a strong signal for a deep trough over the west and substantial ridge over the northeast. Below, you can see the 500mb anomalies during the height of a negative PNA.

Here's what the EURO shows for 500mb heights Saturday evening. The classic negative PNA look.


Feast your eyes on the incredible departures the EURO shows Sunday afternoon.


All guidance suggests a tremendous pressure gradient that could easily generate winds of 40mph+ Sunday. The closer the isobars (lines of equal pressure in black), the stronger the winds. A high wildfire danger will exist in the open country.


The GFS shows these 10 meter wind gusts by Sunday evening.


With the winds out of the south, warmth quickly invades Saturday and escalates to record levels Sunday. Highs will go from 65 to 70 Saturday to 75 to 80 Sunday with deep mixing and 850 temps of 15C. Again, I need to stress while it will be warm, the whipping winds will make it a very bad hair day. Hold onto your hat. Here are the highs we need to reach for records Sunday.


RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 3RD

BURLINGTON: 78, 1983

Moline: 76, 1983

Cedar Rapids: 71, 1983

Dubuque: 68, 1983


Rain chances Sunday night are contingent on a cold front, its speed, and moisture availability. Most guidance brings the front into the region late Sunday night or Monday. The initial push of the front does not produce much in the way of rain, if any, due in large part to a lack of moisture and instability. The front looks to slow up Monday and linger somewhere near or just east of the Mississippi. If that's the case, moisture will increase significantly Monday morning, especially the further SE you go in the area. By then, a pronounced temperature gradient sets up over the region that should bring at least light rain to the north and perhaps some thunderstorms to the SE. Much depends on the speed of the front, which is very much in question for now. At the very least, occasional rain and scattered thunderstorms will be in play late Sunday night and potentially much of Monday, Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals.


The EURO


The GFS

Temperatures will continue mild Monday, especially in the SE, where record highs are again a possibility. Cooler weather follows, but nothing too shabby with the negative PNA still in play. It should also deliver another rain chance the latter portion of next week. Have a great weekend and roll weather...TS


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