HIGH IMPACT STORMS...
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POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY...
While storms are not expected to develop until Friday evening, the potential is there when they do for high winds and a few tornadoes. Here's the threat summary from the Storm Prediction Center
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman, OK 1238 AM CDT Friday, March 14th, 2025
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.
Below you can see the probability of damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail within 25 miles of a point. The hatched areas indicate a 10 percent probability of significant wind gusts of 74mph or greater, a tornado of EF2 - EF5, and large hail 2 inches or greater.
As with all severe weather events, specific ingredients such as instability, brought on by heating and moisture, must coincide with shear and forcing to allow storms to reach severe levels. If one of the ingredients fails to materialize, the recipe is short-changed and so is the fulfillment potential. So far this system appears to have the right stuff to be a significant wind producer with gusts of up to 70+ mph indicated. Based on the arrival of intense deep ascent (lift), thunderstorms are expected to sweep from west to east between 7 and 11:00pm. Due to the fact storms by this time should have evolved into a line with a mature cold pool, (moving as fast as 60 mph), straight line winds look to be the greatest severe threat. Inverted-V soundings are also indicated, hinting at powerful gusts.
That said, this type of dynamically driven storm appears likely to morph into what is known as QLCS, a quasi linear convective system. This term describes a line of thunderstorms that isn't perfectly straight, often with bowing segments or "bow echoes". This is not the classic set-up for tornadoes, but one that can still produce them.
Formation:
QLCS tornadoes can form in the breaks between the bows or "kinks" within the QLCS, where inflow notches into the storm can occur.
Characteristics:
Spin-up tornadoes: QLCS tornadoes are also known as "spin-up tornadoes" because they can form quickly and are often associated with the rotation that develops in the breaks or kinks of the QLCS.
Dangerous: These tornadoes can be fast to spin up, making them difficult to detect and warn about, and they can cause real damage, although they are generally EF2 or less in strength.
In this case, 0-3 km shear is on the order of 50-65 kts early Friday evening (high). That means low level rotation is evident. The negative is dew points, instead of increasing during the afternoon, they may mix out some and decrease slightly. That's the reason for the inverted-V soundings. This has the effect of raising cloud bases, or what's known as (LCLs). Higher LCL's make it more difficult for any mesoscale circulations to reach ground and become tornadoes. Of note, soundings do show LCL levels dropping as the arching line of storms approaches. What it all means is that there is some tornado threat, but it's secondary to the straight line wind concerns due to the moisture issue. Until we see how the whole recipe is evolving (cooking) midday Friday, this may or may not be a thing.
There is an impressive dry line progressing across the region at 10:00pm. The dew point in Galesburg is shown at 38 while immediately east it's in the mid 50s. In WC Missouri, dew points are as low as 27, while in SE Missouri they are as high as 65. That's the kind of extremes a 973mb surface low produces. Anyway, our squall line will ride that dry line rapidly east.
Here, you can see the line of storms lined up along the dry line, arching south from Dubuque to the Quad Cities and on to St Louis around 10:00pm.
However this plays out, the bulk of Friday is going to be warm and dry, no issues until evening outside gusty winds. My area will be firmly in the warm sector, allowing highs to reach the mid 70s north to near 80 south. We have a good shot at attaining records, which look like this around my area.
BURLINGTON.......79 in 2012
CEDAR RAPIDS...75 in 2012
DUBUQUE.............75 in 2012
MOLINE................78 in 2012
One of the major reasons for the warmth will be the strength of the pressure gradient that's tied to the intensity of the storm. Winds will steadily increase as the system approaches, and by late afternoon and evening gusts of 45-50 are likely. A wind advisory is in effect, but could very well be upgraded to a high wind warning. With plenty of dead or dry vegetation in existence, there is a high wildfire risk. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the development of critical wildfire conditions Friday. Avoid outdoor burning!
After the storms depart Friday evening, winds should relax a bit before cranking up again on the storms' backside early Saturday. Temperatures Saturday should start out around 48-54 and hold steady or slowly fall as significantly colder air wraps in behind its circulation. Scattered showers are possible, especially Saturday morning, mainly north of I-80. Sunday looks brisk but seasonable with highs remaining in the 40s.
That's all for now, keep in mind while our day will be warm and uneventful, it could end with a bang and strong storms Friday evening. I anticipate some sort of watches (tornado or severe thunderstorm) to be issued for parts of the area later today. Keep an eye to the sky then. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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