HOW ABOUT A RAISE...
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EVERYBODY LIKES A RAISE
Everybody, likes a raise, and that goes for temperatures as well. Just like in the working world, you have to earn them in the meteorological realm as well. That involves getting the storm track in the right position to deliver southerly winds. No matter what time of year, the source of our air mass is the key to success.
Tuesday was a set-up day for a Wednesday warm-up. High pressure was slowly passing overhead providing sunshine and light winds. It made for a fine day despite temperature being 10-15 degrees below normal. Snow cover kept the north considerably colder. You can clearly see in white where the snow pack exists on the hi-res goes satellite imagery.
Here's the late afternoon temperatures. Notice what's showing up over the high Plains. Southerly winds have sent highs well into the 60s in western Nebraska and Kansas. Some of that warm air is destined to be ours Wednesday.
Here's the synoptic set-up for warmer readings. The 500mb ridge building into the Midwest Wednesday.
A strong pressure gradient driving SW winds of 30mph ahead of a developing storm in Colorado and retreating high in West Virginia.
That allows surface temperatures to reach departures that are 4-8 degrees above normal.
The EURO indicates all but the far north reaching the mid to upper 50s Wednesday. One of our warmer days in some time. Unfortunately the wind will take some of the warmth out of the air. The price you pay for March warm-ups.
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A LATE WINTER STORM.
As I mentioned earlier, the impetus for the warmer temperatures is a storm system developing in the lee of the Rockies. I stays safely to the west Wednesday but will be hinted at by increasing clouds in the afternoon. Wednesday night a surface low takes shape over Kansas. As it interacts with energy diving south in the northern branch of the jet it will begin to intensify and travel northeast along a slow moving cold front. It appears now the front holds just to the west of my area until the surface low passes along it late in the day Thursday. That keeps my area in the warm sector allowing highs to to reach the range of 55-60 up to I-80. The true warm front may not get to HWY 20 until evening keeping highs in the mid to upper 40s north of HWY 30. That's a tricky call.
At any rate, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will spread northeast into the area late morning or early afternoon. PWAT's (available water vapor) will reach an inch or more over the entire area by evening indicating another wet system.