- Mar 15, 2023

HOW ABOUT A RAISE...

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EVERYBODY LIKES A RAISE

Everybody, likes a raise, and that goes for temperatures as well. Just like in the working world, you have to earn them in the meteorological realm as well. That involves getting the storm track in the right position to deliver southerly winds. No matter what time of year, the source of our air mass is the key to success.

Tuesday was a set-up day for a Wednesday warm-up. High pressure was slowly passing overhead providing sunshine and light winds. It made for a fine day despite temperature being 10-15 degrees below normal. Snow cover kept the north considerably colder. You can clearly see in white where the snow pack exists on the hi-res goes satellite imagery.

Here's the late afternoon temperatures. Notice what's showing up over the high Plains. Southerly winds have sent highs well into the 60s in western Nebraska and Kansas. Some of that warm air is destined to be ours Wednesday.

Here's the synoptic set-up for warmer readings. The 500mb ridge building into the Midwest Wednesday.

A strong pressure gradient driving SW winds of 30mph ahead of a developing storm in Colorado and retreating high in West Virginia.

That allows surface temperatures to reach departures that are 4-8 degrees above normal.

The EURO indicates all but the far north reaching the mid to upper 50s Wednesday. One of our warmer days in some time. Unfortunately the wind will take some of the warmth out of the air. The price you pay for March warm-ups.

MARCH MADNESS CONTINUES AT MY NEW AIRBNB IN GALENA CLICK THE BANNER FOR MORE.

A LATE WINTER STORM.

As I mentioned earlier, the impetus for the warmer temperatures is a storm system developing in the lee of the Rockies. I stays safely to the west Wednesday but will be hinted at by increasing clouds in the afternoon. Wednesday night a surface low takes shape over Kansas. As it interacts with energy diving south in the northern branch of the jet it will begin to intensify and travel northeast along a slow moving cold front. It appears now the front holds just to the west of my area until the surface low passes along it late in the day Thursday. That keeps my area in the warm sector allowing highs to to reach the range of 55-60 up to I-80. The true warm front may not get to HWY 20 until evening keeping highs in the mid to upper 40s north of HWY 30. That's a tricky call.

At any rate, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will spread northeast into the area late morning or early afternoon. PWAT's (available water vapor) will reach an inch or more over the entire area by evening indicating another wet system.

Moderate rains are possible in spots but much will depend on the eventual track of the surface low. There's likely to be a dry slot close to where the center of circulation travels which appears to be from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Amounts in that corridor, wherever it forms could be significantly lighter than on either side of it. The surface depiction below shows the low at 7:00pm Thursday. More heavy snow falls where it has all winter just off to the northwest.

Here's what guidance is showing for rain totals. The dry slot really shows up on the 12k NAM

The GFS

The EURO

The 12k NAM

By Thursday evening very cold air is ingested into the system creating a strong cold front. It quickly shuts down precipitation but there is a chance, especially in the northwest that rain could briefly change to some light snow before ending. I'm currently expecting north more than a dusting if that. It will be a different story to the NW where strong winds and snow will batter parts of NW Iowa, Minnesota, and NW Wisconsin. Wednesday will be the 106th consecutive day with an inch or more of snow in the ground in Minneapolis. There's no end in sight for that streak. Here's what models are suggesting for snowfall from the storm.

The GFS

The EURO

The 12k NAM

BUNDLE UP YOUR SHAMROCK

After a balmy start, the cold front strikes Thursday night and temperatures plummet quickly into the 20s. The strong cold air advection and a rapid rise in pressure generates powerful winds that will likely be sustained at 20-30 mph, some gusts greater than 45 mph are quite possible my morning. That leaves us with a very cold and blustery St. Patrick's day. Temperatures will hold in the upper 20s north to low 30s south. Wind chills much of the day will remain in the range of 5 to 15 degrees. Clouds and scattered snow showers are likely Friday into Saturday with plenty of instability aloft and vorticity rotating around a closed 500mb upper air low over the Great Lakes. There might be a dusting in spots, especially north of I-80. Saturday highs will not get out of the 20s in most areas. Here's the projected temperature departures at noon Saturday. Most of us will be more than 20 degrees colder than normal. Yippee!

By Sunday we are looking at improvement relatively speaking. The sun will be out and after a fresh start well into the teens, highs will creep back into the low to mid 30s. With lighter winds it will be a far better day than Saturday.

In general, well below normal temperatures will be with us through next week. The average daily departures over the next 7 days ending March 21st look like this. Welcome to spring.