HOW ABOUT SOME SPRING!
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
Hi all. I'm still hoping for 370 dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm 98% there). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.
Thanks so much, T. Swails
BETTER DAYS A COMING...
Some sloppy, wet snow made for an interesting start to Friday in some of my northern counties. The snow band was narrow, but those who dwelled in the heart of it picked up 3 to 3.5 inches. The primary axis was along and north of HWY 30 from Ames to Cedar Rapids, and on to Lowden, Iowa.
One aspect of interest was how the snow swath collapsed as upper level shear and dry air tore it up just before reaching the Mississippi. I had 6 different models come in just before the snow began, all combined showing an average of 2.5 inches in Dubuque. I went to bed at 3:30am, expecting to wake up mid-morning to a couple inches of fresh snow. Surprise, I didn't even have enough to track a cat! Snow forecasting is extremely difficult. When 6 models can't see it 6 hours ahead of time, there's not much a man or woman can do but suck eggs. This has been a really tough year for harsh cut-offs and an overall lack of snow locally!
Here's what the Midwest Climate Center shows for snowfall this winter. Some places in SE Iowa and WC Illinois are hovering around the 4-inch mark for the entire winter. That is hard to do.
My entire area has seen just 25-50 percent of its mean snowfall. That's pretty much the case over all the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. Not our year for white gold, that's for sure.
Here are some specific departures around the Midwest. The Quad Cities is currently running about 25 inches below normal for the snow season. Bad sledding!
These are the actual totals.
The least snowy winter in the Quad Cities was 6.0 inches in 1920-21, just slightly less than the 6.7 measured so far this year.
NO SNOW ANYTIME SOON
This much seems apparent, snow is not in the forecast for at least the next 10 days, probably longer. The 10-day snowfall forecast ending the 18th looks like this on the GFS.
And like this on the EURO, pretty similar.
It's not that we won't have storms, rather it's the fact we won't have cold air. The GFS has nothing colder than 45 for a high between now and March 23rd.
The EURO is actually warmer than the GFS the next 9 days before a cooler and more seasonal look after the 16th.
This coming week looks pretty tame until about Friday, when another powerful storm is shown ejecting out of the SW. The surface low is shown at 974mb, that's stronger than the one that produced the blizzard conditions earlier this week (980mb), only further west.
This should get your attention. Temperatures out ahead of the storm are shown 25–35 degrees above normal, the 14th! Both the EURO and GFS show highs reaching 70 or above.
Strong southerly winds are also ingesting moisture, with water vapor shown over an inch in SE Iowa on the GFS.
The GFS shows thunderstorms breaking out late Friday ahead of an advancing dry line. If the GFS solution holds, this is a highly sheared environment that would have real severe weather potential. That said, we are almost a week out and the timing is likely to change. That does not impact the threat, it would just move it to another location. We clearly have plenty of time to watch events unfold, but this system really has the look and feel of spring rather than winter. You storm chasers have to be drooling a bit at this scenario.
All right then, let's get this warming trend started with a pleasant, sunny weekend and run it through next week. All in say aye aye captain!
For those dealing with snow in the north today, rest assured it won't be around long. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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