IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME

terryswails1
Sep 26
3 min read

SHOELESS JOE JACKSON WITH HIS BAT BLACK BETSY IN 1913

In the movie, Field of Dreams, Ray Kinsella (played by Kevin Costner) hears a voice : "If you build it, he will come". An Iowa farmer, Ray builds a baseball diamond in the midst of a corn field near Dyersville. Soon after, the ghosts of great ball players of the past start showing up, led by the disgraced Shoeless Joe Jackson. Ray builds the field out of faith, and in doing so, he finds the opportunity to connect with his father and the past, and the movie ends happily.

By the way, if you don't know, In 1911, his first full MLB season, Shoeless Joe set several rookie records. His .408 batting average that season is a mark that still stands and was good for second overall in the league behind Ty Cobb's .419 — one of the few times in baseball history that a batting average above .400 did not win a batting title. The man could swing the stick. Joe was suspended with seven other members of the White Sox after allegations surfaced that the team had thrown the 1919 World Series to the Cincinnati Reds.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY

The moral of the story from a weather standpoint is that if you build a ridge, warmth will come, and that's precisely what's happening here in the Midwest the next 10 days. This animation shows a deep trough off the Pacific northwest that promotes the ridge and delivers the goods.

Ironically, the position of the ridge is in such a location that it's able to tap warmth but not moisture, a tough feat to accomplish. As a result, the humidity which often comes with such a synoptic set-up will not be an issue this time around. Available water vapor is shown less than 50 percent of normal a week from now October 3rd.

That really does a number on humidity, which about that time is shown to be in the range of 35-45%.

It's a good thing too when you consider what temperatures will look like the next 14 days. The EURO, which is a more likely scenario, has 6 days in the 80s, with the remainder remaining in the 70s until October 10th.

The GFS appears to be up to its old trick of mismanaging mixing at low levels and has 11 of the next 15 days at 85 or higher with 3 days in the 90s, one at 95 and the other a smoking 98 degrees. Not only is it way too warm, it only has 2 days in the 70s and maintains the above normal warmth through October 11th and beyond. I'm certainly discounting its excessive heat, but it could have merit continuing the mild conditions longer than the EURO.

The National Blend of models is a reasonable compromise, just a bit warmer than the EURO, which may end up being correct with the extremely dry air that will be in place. I will also mention that despite being in the mid to perhaps upper 80s a few days, the dry air will cool nicely with the longer nights of fall and readings should slip back into the 50s for lows. Big diurnal temperature swings are ahead.

The Climate Prediction Center remains bullish, showing high chances of well above normal temperatures in both its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

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RAIN, RAIN, HAS GONE AWAY...

Dry air, a ridge, and negligible forcing should be the kiss of death for any rain chances for up to 10 days. The EURO shows this for rain through Saturday, October 4th.

The GFS indicates this.

It all results in rainfall departures over that 10-day period of another inch or more.

If no rain falls in Moline the rest of this month, which seems to be a good bet, this will turn out to be the 6th driest September on record with just 0.71 inches.

For what it's worth, the EURO weeklies continue to show dry, mild weather right on through the month of October. Here's its 46-day precipitation departures.