IRONING SNOW, NOW THAT'S TRICKY

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE TO REPORT.

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STILL SOME SNOW IN OUR FUTURE

A new day day, even more questions. Yesterday Nick and I introduced the idea of a snow system Thursday night. In general, there was pretty good consistency between the EURO and GFS on placement and amounts. This mornings runs show quite a bit more variance, particularly in the area of intensity. Even so, that has done nothing to change the fact confidence is moderate to high there will be a system, but low on track and amounts. Needless, to say I've got some ironing to do. By the way, does anyone iron anymore?

Anyway, I'll show you the raw snowfall output and comment below.

The GFS, the most aggressive for snow, stronger and furthest north.

The EURO, considerably weaker and further south.

The difference in amounts is most likely the result of the GFS digging the trough more than the EURO. That ramps up the forcing and injects more moisture. It also imparts a track slightly further north. Overall, just a better organized system. Compare the two 500mb forecasts below.

The GFS

The EURO

Normally, I would lean heavily towards the EURO due to its better skill forecasts at this distance. However, the GFS just beat the EURO on the major snowstorm that is socking the northeast. Rarely does that happen. Not only that, with the last storm that dumped all the snow in central and NE Iowa, the GFS staunchly held the heavier snow in NE Iowa while the EURO plunked it directly on Dubuque and my northern counties the night before. Then, the day of the storm, it shifted back west in agreement with the GFS. It seems to be on a hot streak and I can't as easily discount it. Either way, I think it is still too early to side with any one model.

This is the NBM guidance (National Blend of Models). It's mean solution seems most reasonable to me. Although, it is possible amounts in a narrow band could be 1-2 inches higher. It's far too early for modeling to see those mesoscale details. Thus. for now I am favoring the N/NE half of my area (roughly near and north of I-80) to see accumulations of 1 to 3, potentially 4 inches. If the GFS somehow pulls off another coup, the amounts in my far northern counties could end up a bit higher. I do stress, any snow is not likely until Thursday night making this a very preliminary estimate. Details in time will become clearer allowing for a more defined forecast with higher confidence. Keep that in mind!

I also was intrigued and surprised to see the 2 week meteogram of the operational EURO looking like this through March 9th. That is a huge departure from what the GFS is showing. March 6th, the GFS is 51 degrees warmer than the EURO (72 to 21). Compare the two below. That is night and day in the week 2 period.

The EURO

The GFS

On top of that, the operational EURO is cranking out a bunch of snow in the 2 week period ending March 8th.

It's ensemble shows considerably less due to the fact there are 51 members, apparently quite a few with wider spreads which lowers the mean amounts shown. That week 2 period is where things get shaky.

The bottom line is the 2 week period beginning March 1st shows a massive fight between the EURO and GFS, one very wintry and the other very springlike. It looks as if I will have a lot more ironing to do in the days ahead. I really need to find that iron. Oh, that's right, my wife tells me we don't have one. Surprise! Roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 90% to my goal.

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