JOY TO THE WORLD...
There was joy in my world Wednesday after thunderstorms dumped an inch of rain (1.07") at my place in Dubuque. Only two other individual days this year have seen more, February 27th 1.23" and June 24th 1.51".
The rain was desperately needed as going into the event Dubuque and surrounding areas were 6.44 inches below normal on the year.
Other parts of the area further south have enjoyed generous rains the past couple of weeks and were in better shape. That area was again the big winner with significantly higher amounts occurring there, especially along the I-80 corridor where 1-4 inch totals were indicated. Below are the Doppler estimates.
Using another scale, you can see in dark blue the areas that saw at least and inch and the green indicates 2 inches or more. This time around all but the far far south enjoyed beneficial rains.
You can see the big mesoscale convective complex that generated the rain early Wednesday.
The infra-red enhancement shows the cold cloud tops of the well developed storm complex.
Heading into the next 4-5 days the driving force in our weather will be an unusually strong upper air pattern at 500mb that features a closed low over SC Canada and a pronounced NW flow.
That keeps temperatures in check well into next week with 5 day departures looking like this Friday-Wednesday of next week. Highs start warm the next couple days in the 80s but gradually fall into the 78 to 82 range come Sunday and Monday.
The cyclonic flow will spin some vorticity into the Midwest which combined with cool temperatures aloft could be enough to kick off a few spotty diurnal showers Thursday afternoon. Rain prospects appear greater late Friday and Friday night as a short wave and associated cold front swings through the area. With good moisture and some CAPE (instability), some locally heavy downpours are possible in any storms that fire. That will be very much contingent on the timing of the frontal passage. We'll have a much better handle on that later Thursday.
Additional spokes of energy could produce spotty showers into Monday of next week but at this point moisture appears to be limited and the primary storm track far enough SW to keep heavier rains at bay. So while there could be a shower here and there, they look widely scattered and rain totals very much on the light side.
At least for the next 6-10 days, CPC indicates temperatures near to below normal with average amounts of rainfall. That seems reasonable to me.
With that, we approach the weekend with significantly drier and calmer conditions in-between storms. Sounds like a good place to be! Roll weather...TS
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