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JUST A BIT OUTSIDE...

For much of the area, any pitches thrown for the sake of rain will be just a bit outside the next few days. The storm track is now back in NW flow with summers heat and humidity positioned south of line running from northern Kansas to southwest Missouri.

The searing heat that was cooking us a few days ago is baking Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

The eastern fringe of the heat also contains dew points in the 70s which have pushed heat index values in some areas there close to 110.

The northern edge of that thermal boundary is where the ring of fire is located and that dictates where showers and storms will fall in coming days. By all accounts high pressure over the Great Lakes remains in place through late week. That allows the baroclinic boundary "ring of fire" to move only slightly northeast.

The gist of it all is that the next rain making system Wednesday should confine its wet weather to the SW third to one half of my area. The northeast gets a pass if current trends hold. Now that we've identified the area that is likely to see rain, the next hurdle is to determining how much falls where it does.


One thing there is no shortage of is moisture. Water vapor on the EURO reaches nearly 2.5 inches in in Missouri with the 2 inch threshold up into my southern counties. Amounts such as that are a good indicator heavy rain is on the table for those areas.

As it stands now the best chances for heavy rain are near and south of HWY 34. One thing to watch is the strength of the Great Lakes high. If that is just a bit stronger it could force the larger amounts down to the Missouri border and points south. We should have that hammered out tomorrow. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals. Most of this fall Wednesday into Thursday morning.


The GFS

The EURO

The 12k NAM

The 3k NAM

Overall, instability is meager and thus severe weather does not look to be a factor with this round of rain.


Ahead of all this, there's a tiny little weakness in the flow that may allow a couple showers to sprout Tuesday morning in my NC counties, mainly north of HWY 30. Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday should be seasonal with highs back in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday looks tricky as clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures well below normal, especially in the south. The EURO has some highs confined to the upper 70s in spots

Readings like that are a good 6-12 degrees cooler than normal south of I-80.

After a little break on Friday with highs back in the 80s, the weather should turn unsettled in most spots over the weekend and perhaps into Tuesday of next week. Note how the GFS gouges out a significant trough over the central U.S. Tuesday.

That could prove to be a fairly dynamic system not only with its rainmaking capabilities but with cool temperatures as well. Look at the 5 day temperature departures on the GFS Sunday through Thursday of next week. Impressive for early August.

Rainfall is also above normal during that 5 day period, especially across the south.

One last bit of house cleaning. I want to wish my friend, colleague, and contributor to this site, meteorologist Nick Stewart congratulations on his big new job, Nick has accepted a position at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida as forecaster for rocket launches. Nick and I have captured numerous tornadoes together and a couple of Emmys at KGAN TV in Cedar Rapids. He's a solid individual who even at his young age taught an old dog like me new tricks. My nickname for him was "rocketman" due to his intense interest in rockets and the space program. Now he really is a full fledged rocketman who will make NASA proud. Go forth and flourish young fellow.

That's a wrap for now. Until next time roll weather...TS


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