JUST A MATTER OF TIME
Setting at my table writing this post, I just watched the sun slip over the horizon at 7:02pm. The shadows are heavy, and it's about time to turn on the lights. A little more than 2 months ago, I could make it to 8:45pm before the same process occurred. I also used to have to pull the shades down because the setting sun showered the room with so much light. Today, for the first time, I did not need to close the shades due to the lower angle of the sun in the southern sky. Until now, that was a necessity, with the setting sun showering the room with a wave of light. This was a benchmark moment. Despite the day's warmth, I fully absorbed the undisputable truth that summer is on its way out. It's just a short matter of time before these hazy, lazy days are just a sweet memory for months to come. It's the changing of the guard. To say the least, my heart felt a bit heavy. I guess it's the hard reality that just like summer, I'm well into the fall of my life. How time ticks.
On the plus side, it was another magnificent summer day around the Midwest. Above normal temperatures dominated the landscape from Canada to the Equator.
One of the areas where it was cold was Greenland. Winter is already established there with a heavy snowpack. The same cant be said for Eurasia, where little if any snow cover is currently indicated.
Looking at sea level pressure anomalies, there is a notable area of low pressure organizing over Montana and the northern Rockies. That's the area to watch for what appears to be the initiation of a pattern change that will break the cycle of what's been nearly a 3-week run of dry weather. It will also end a stretch of 80 degree highs that's pushing 2 weeks.
Notice the swirl of clouds associated with the lowering pressures to the northwest Tuesday night. That energy will swing a cool front towards the region Thursday night that should provide the forcing for at least scattered showers and storms.
Unfortunately for my local area, the timing of the front is questionable for much in the way of concentrated rainfall. With the front arriving after midnight, much of the day's heating and instability will be wilting. That means storms which could be active in central Iowa will likely be weakening as they arrive here later in the overnight, especially with the forcing lifting more north than east. That said, SPC does have a slight risk outlook in place for severe storms in that area. What's left of that activity will be what bleeds into my counties late.
Here's what guidance is currently suggesting for rainfall Thursday night from this first disturbance.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
One thing seems a sure bet, and that's the fact Thursday will be a toasty day. With a pre-frontal draw well established, highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected to be widespread. A few spots in the south could touch 90.
It's back to warm, dry weather Friday and Saturday to begin the weekend. In general, highs will be in the low to mid 80s under partly sunny skies.
WETTER AND COOLER...
Saturday night and Sunday, trends have been for a faster ejection of an upper air low into the region that brings with much improved chances for beneficial rains. The system is centered around a cold core upper air low that only slowly cross the region. The yields a 36-48 hour window where scattered showers and storms are expected through Monday. Current indications are that some rain amounts could well exceed an inch. Take a look.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The addition of clouds and rain cooled air will finally bring our streak of 80 degree days to an end after a 12-day stretch. Here's what the EURO indicates for temperatures the next 10 days.
Long range, models have drastically different interpretations of how the long wave pattern evolves around the beginning of October. The EURO shows a powerful stacked area of low pressure over NW Iowa, October 3rd. That would bring an eye-opening brand of cold, unsettled weather.
The GFS is having none of that, bringing mild, dry, and very stable conditions to the Midwest.
I can't even venture a guess as to how that all plays out. I do see signs that the MJO may enter phase 1 around that time, which is a harbinger of cooler weather. Something to watch and ponder in coming days.
With that, I leave you with another warm late summer day. Soak it up and roll weather...TS
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