KINDER AND GENTLER...
After Friday's rock and roll weather which featured intense humidity and thunderstorms, kinder, gentler conditions returned to the Midwest Saturday. Highs were back in the mid 80s, a good 9-14 degrees cooler. Humidity levels were still significant but nothing like the steam we endured Friday afternoon.
By the way, all that potential energy erupted in violent thunderstorms that brought wind gusts nearing 100 mph to parts of eastern Iowa. The NWS in the Quad Cities shared this image of the squall line which produced a focused swath of 70-90 mph wind gusts from Marshalltown to Cedar Rapids, and Clinton. Ironically, that's the line the August 10th, 2020 derecho hit hard as it plowed across east-central Iowa.
Approximately 50 severe weather reports were received at the NWS office in the Quad Cities.
Significant tree damage was reported in spots such as Clinton, Cedar Rapids, Hiawatha, Martelle, Maquoketa, and Marion to name a few. This picture was taken by David French in Clinton.
Rainfall was significant in spots, especially in NW Illinois where widespread 1-3 inch totals were recorded.
In general our weather remains quiet through Tuesday as high pressure and NW flow aloft deliver seasonal temperatures and humidity to the region. Sunday is shaping up to be a beautiful day with highs of 80-84 and dew points in the upper 50s. Monday will see only a slight increase in temperatures and humidity and thus another fine day is expected.
Tuesday moisture is back on the increase setting the table for our next rain chance Wednesday or Wednesday night. All guidance is bullish on a NW/SE oriented swath of rain along a baroclinic boundary that sets up somewhere from NW Iowa into SC Illinois. The precise location is still to be determined and that will tell the tale of where and how much rain falls. It does appear that the SW half of my area is most favored for the heavier rains which could be significant. Models are depicting PWAT's (water vapor) greater than 2 inches getting into parts of SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Take a look.
The GEM
The GFS
The EURO
As you can see, the GEM is furthest NE with the deeper moisture and heavier rain potential. The GFS is in the middle and the EURO furthest SW. Until we get the proper read on which solution is correct, we have to broad brush the threat. ( I personally like the further SW idea of the EURO for now which mean little if any rain north of I-80). There's also the chance the system goes even further west and very little rain falls even in the SW. Here's what each solution suggest for total rainfall midweek.
The GEM
The GFS
The EURO
Meantime, now that the heat has been displaced, it looks like NW flow will be in place for at least the next 6-10 days keeping temperatures near to perhaps a few degree below normal long term. Something to monitor. Have a super Sunday and roll weather...TS
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