MAJOR SPRING STORM...
Ingredients appear to be coming together for a major spring storm capable of heavy rain, some thunderstorms, and then a transition to wind, cold, and accumulating snow for many. A complex interaction of the northern and southern jet streams will take place over the region, allowing for rapid development of the storm Tuesday through Wednesday. The HRRR takes the storm's central pressure from 999mb tonight to 978mb late Tuesday night. The explosive development should generate powerful northerly winds of up to 50 mph.
Initially, periods of moderate to heavy rain accompany the storm before its deformation band develops late Tuesday afternoon or evening. At that time, rain will begin mixing with and eventually change to snow. Several inches of wet accumulation are possible, especially across the northern half of my area. The EURO currently suggests amounts such as this.
The GFS
The HRRR
Due to the complex nature of the storm and the amount of phasing, as well as uncertainties regarding transition timing and melting, amounts are still low confidence, However, odds are now high that snow will find us by the time the storm ends, something I've been watching for a week.
I will have a full update for you by tomorrow morning as the amount of phasing becomes more certain, hopefully allowing more accurate assessments on when, where, and how much snow falls Tuesday night and Wednesday. Meantime, a cold, blustery rain develops tonight (with embedded t/storms in spots) that lasts into Tuesday before the phase change to snow. Sorry to say, this is no April fools' joke. Just wanted to give you a heads-up. Roll weather...TS
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