MARCH MADNESS, MIDWEST STYLE
ROUND AND ROUND WE GO...
One storm is finishing its dirty work this morning, another is a thousand miles away with weekend reservations already booked here in the Midwest. Today's mess is far more impactful in the north, where snow and mixed precipitation has created the most challenging winter travel conditions in more than two months. You can see below that until today, Dubuque with no measurable snow has been setting on a total of 36.60 inches since January 23rd. That number has grown Saturday morning.
Winter weather advisories remain in effect for snow totals in the 1-5 inch range north of I-80. A few local spots could see locally higher amounts in mesoscale banding near HWY 20. Fortunately, temperatures are near freezing, which has allowed some melting. Additionally, road conditions will improve rapidly once the snow tapers off late morning. Even so, it will be a raw spring day with fresh snow north and cold air advection in all areas. Highs will remain far below normal, in the mid 30s north to the low 40s south.
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A BIG OLD STORM...
That leads us into a more formidable storm that covers far more real estate. It will produce near blizzard conditions over parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest, with heavy rain, wind, and even severe thunderstorms in parts of the Midwest. The energy still has a long way to go before it makes the bend and impacts the central U.S.
Due to the distance the storm must travel, once precipitation ends Friday, it is not likely to resume in any reasonable way until late Saturday night or Sunday morning when a wing of warm advection takes a swipe at my northwestern counties. A period of light snow or a rain snow mix should quickly turn over to rain. Little if any snow accumulation is expected in the north, and overall precipitation from this wave looks light.
Sunday night and Monday, the low level jet pivots east into the Mississippi Valley as the storm pulls into WC Iowa. This is the period when the best moisture is situated over the region. However, forcing is not necessarily aligned with it and the fast movement of cells may split the heavy precipitation west and east of my region. Rain totals have come down considerably over the past 24–48 hours. Here's what the latest data suggests for totals.
The EURO
The GFS
There is at least a small threat of severe weather Monday when a cold front and associated dry slot enters late in the day. Instability looks rather low with temperatures and moisture marginal. A little more heating might tip the scales, allowing a few low topped supercells. That won't be known until Sunday or more likely Monday morning. The current SPC storm risk Sunday.
While missing a soaking rain is not great news, especially in eastern Iowa, the fact we avoid getting plastered by a heavy wet snow is. You can see what models are showing for snow totals off to the northwest late weekend.
The GFS
The EURO
Much cooler and drier weather follows the storm, Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, the long wave pattern reloads with another potent system late next week. At least for now, it shows the promise of bringing significant precipitation. That's all for now. Roll weather...TS
