NEXT STORM UP...
A howling west wind brought chilly conditions back into the Midwest Wednesday. This all came on the backside of a severe weather outbreak Tuesday. Numerous reports of hail, high winds, and even tornadoes were reported. The NWS out of the Quad Cities is completing storm surveys. It's possible that multiple tornadoes occurred.
The NWS damage survey so far indicates the Houghton to Salem and New London tornado was a high end EF2 with winds of 130 mph (136 would have made it a violent EF3). The path length was 26 miles, very impressive!
A closer perspective of the track. Fortunately, it stayed mainly in the open country.
Here are some storm images from Tuesday obtained from the NWS Quad Cities.
I personally took this image of the wall cloud near New London that a few minutes later went on to produce the EF2 tornado and its 130 mph winds. That big old appendage was spinning like a top. It was an amazing sight to watch.
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ANOTHER CHILLY RAIN...
The wind and clouds of Tuesday quickly moved out, only to be replaced by new ones this morning. That's in response to a new system digging southeast out of the northern Plains. Late evening clouds were already increasing in the satellite image below...the next storm up!
We don't take a direct hit from this disturbance, but the shortwave will be strong enough to generate enough moisture and forcing to spread a rain shield through the area Thursday. There's enough CAPE (instability) to generate a few thunderstorms in the far south, the area where the heavier rains are anticipated. Due to clouds, NE winds, and rain cooled air, highs may have a tough time getting out of the upper 40s north to the low 50s south. A poor day to be sure.
Here's what models are indicating for rainfall potential through Thursday. Clearly, the area south of I-80 stands the best chance of seeing the heaviest rains of 1/2 to as much as 1 inch.
The EURO
The GFS
The HRRR
The 3K NAM
Thursday night, a healthy high pressure begins to build south over the northern Plains. This sends a stout surge of cool, dry air into the Midwest that holds through the weekend. It ensures dry but unseasonably cool weather. Highs will generally be in the range of 50 north to 55 south, Friday through Sunday.
Of more concern are the overnight lows. With winds decoupling at night, mostly clear skies, and plenty of dry air, lows will reach the low to mid 30s (perhaps upper 20s in the north). That's likely to produce frost advisories or even freeze warnings. Vegetation is very susceptible to cold temperatures and protective action may be required, especially in the north. At this time in April, odds of temperatures colder than 30 degrees generally range from about 55% northwest to 15 percent southeast. Beware, Jack Frost has eyes on the area.
To sum it up, today looks downright crummy with showers, clouds, and really chilly temperatures. Make your plans indoors if possible. Hang in there and roll weather...TS
