ON THE STRAIGHT AND NARROW...
The past few days have been unsettled over the central Midwest with a series of disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms. The action was more centered on western sections Saturday but as the system chugged east the rains advanced with it. You can see the daily rainfall totals as tallied by the Iowa Flood Center.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Humidity was also a factor as available water levels soared to 2 inch plus level Sunday afternoon.
Monday morning dew points were into the mid 70s which is a very healthy category for late August.
With that level of moisture it's no surprise that where rain fell, some locally heavy amounts were seen. Unfortunately, amounts in the far south where dryness has prevailed for some time, were generally lean which was a disappointment. Here's the three day estimates of rainfall around the Midwest. Some 3-4 inch totals showing up while less than 50 miles away amounts were under 1/10th of an inch. So it goes with late summer rains.
Going forward the spigot gets turned off and we enter a period of dryness that will carry through to the end of the week. The EURO depicts this for total rainfall through the day Friday. That makes sense to me.
You will also notice the air will be far drier and thus more comfortable with dew points dropping from the mid 70s to the upper 40s and low 50s Tuesday afternoon. That's what fall is all about.
The high pressure that brings the pleasant change in our weather fortunes should limit moisture the rest of the week, hence the quiet nature of the forecast. Along with ample sunshine you can expect highs to start in the upper 70s and rise into the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday. The EURO meteogram depicts readings that look like this into Saturday.
I see no real opportunity for rain until Friday night when our next cool front makes a move on the Midwest. By then enough return flow and moisture is in place for scattered showers and storms. Overall the forcing is meager and I expect rainfall to be light if current trends hold. Here's what the EURO suggests.
The GFS
That sets us up well for the holiday weekend as any lingering showers depart early Saturday. From there on out into Monday dry comfortable weather is on the table. Make your plans outdoors!
I will end with a look at the something I noted in Monday night's weeklies off the EURO. It shows a healthy trend for wet weather in the 46 day period extending out to mid October. Here's what it shows for total precipitation through October 14th.
Don't get caught up in the numbers as they are bound to change over such an extended period. However, the anomalies point to a trend that could bring well above normal rainfall to significant parts of the central Midwest. Some spots do not need the rain but others in my southern counties are in moderate to severe drought and some of this would be welcome. That said, 8-12 inches coming as harvest time approaches would not be welcome news for farmers. Again, this is very speculative and nothing to lose sleep over at this point in the game. Just something to keep an eye on as the fall pattern begins to unfold. Here's what the rain anomalies look like out to October 14th.
With that, I leave you to embrace what promises to be a fabulous day of weather. We are back on the straight and narrow. August is going out like a lamb. Roll weather...TS
