PROMISE IN THE PATTERN!

OPTIMISM FOR THE FUTURE

Friends, we are so close. I'm on the cusp of reaching the funding I need to get the site through another year. I'm at 96% of the necessary goal. Nothing would make me happier or more reIieved to get it behind me. I just need a little bump to get over the hump. If you use the site daily, find it informative, or make financial decisions based on it, please consider a donation. Any bit helps to keep the site going in its no-pay format. Nick and I will work hard to bring you the reliable value you have come to expect the last 13 years. The future is up to you. Thank you for your help!

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PROMISE IN THE PATTERN...

The atmosphere is currently in flux as it renegotiates its alignment. This alteration of the storm track could be significant locally as it offers the prospect of much need precipitation over the next 10-14 days. Aside from that, it is likely to bring a prolonged period of above normal temperatures.

Take a look at the EURO meteogram over the next 2 weeks. The spike in upcomong temperatures is clearly evident, especially in the period March 4th through the 12th. The EURO shows 7 consecutive days with highs in the range of 66 to 74 degrees.

What also important about the warmth is the physical fact that warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air. The moisture is not always there when its warm, but in this case it should be activated on many of those days. That point is evident in the animation below showing available water vapor Sunday March 1st through Wednesday of March 11th. You can see waves of moisture in green and yellow surging through the MIdwest with the passage of multiple short waves (individual storm systems).

It's all brought about by the mean 500mb storm track being anchored over the west, allowing energy to rotate out of it into the Midwest on a regular basis.

The GFS ensemble mean, comprised of numerous members indicates precipitation totals such as this through March 15th.

That results in mean precipition departures that look like this. The heaviest axis is just southeast of my area, but we are still in widespread worthwhile precipitation that is above normal.

The 51 EURO ensembles, while slightly lighter on amounts look, is similar to the GFS.

It's mean 15 day departures are also similar in amounts and position

This all leads to medium to high confidence that we get some much need precipitation starting early next week. To lay odds, the GFS ensembles indicate a 75 percent chance of amounts like this through March 11th.

They put odds at 90 precent of totals such as this.

Every drop of it would be welcome with precipitation deficits since August 15th of 9-10 inches common throughout the local area.

On a closing note, I am just 600 dollars short of reaching my fund raising goal to keep the site going past this year. I'm making one last push to reach the top of the mountain. Anybody willing to donate 300 dollars will get two of my autographed books, my bobblehead, and a Terry Swails rain guage. Please, if you can help in any way, it would be greatly appreciated. Roll weather...TS

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